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ATN Podcast 348: And then there were two

Just as we expected — one amazing national semifinal and one blowout. Never mind that people generally thought it would be the other way around — not our predictions, by the way, which did not have North Central winning in a blowout.

We talk through the Cortland win against Randolph-Macon, hear the reactions of players Cole Burgess and Jack Winey as told to Keith McMillan, talk about what we learned and whether Saturday’s defensive performance by the Red Dragons is enough to suggest they can slow down North Central.

We also talk through the implications of the North Central’s narrow win, talk through the exciting plays that had the Cardinals on the ropes and the key defensive stops and big offensive plays which won the day. We also talk with quarterback Luke Lehnen about the experience of playing in the cold and wind, on the road, in a big game, and his sense of calm even as the Cardinals were struggling to move the ball. 

Plus, let’s be honest. It’s Stagg Bowl L. 50. FIFTY. And it’s back in Salem, Virginia. That requires a special tribute, and Patrick Coleman is glad to provide. Scroll down for lyrics because they fly by pretty fast.

Plus, our listener questions: What do you suggest we do in Salem? We’ll give our insight there plus tackle some other questions, as well as talk about who the loudest fans are and what else is coming up this week on D3football.com

This edition of the podcast is sponsored by d3photography.com, the licensed photography bureau contracted by D3sports.com.

Patrick Coleman and Greg Thomas discuss, in this edition of the podcast.

The D3football.com podcast is a weekly in-season podcast by Patrick Coleman and Greg Thomas, which was started in 2007.

Hit play, or subscribe to get this podcast on your mobile device.

Full episode:

You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in Apple Podcasts, and many other places. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Here’s how to find us on some of the major podcasting apps:

Theme music: Power 2 by DJmentos.
Photos: By Caleb Williams, d3photography.com: Dan Hunter, d3photography.com

      

The Stagg Bowl 50 Song

Lyrics by Patrick Coleman, music by Billy Joel

Annotations of lyrics in the comments.

50 years of D-III,
We know it’s the place to be.
Salem made it special back some 30 years ago
Playoffs were just 16 teams
And you know what that means
You might not get in them even if you’re 10-0

1999 felt nice,
When the field expanded twice
Automatic bids for all seemed like an awesome plan
Playoffs going five rounds,
Extra week of showdowns
Now at-large teams stay home and we’re back where we began

We’re here for Stagg Bowl 50
Played for half a century
As the best of D-III
We’re here for Stagg Bowl 50
And it’s back in V-A
Everyone say hooray

Purple Raiders on a streak,
Tying Augie’s what they seek,
Entering the playoffs once again as No. 1

Way out on the west coast,
Frosty’s not the type to boast,
They’re still new to D3 and they’re out here having fun. 

Rowan’s guys from ACC,
Pluto’s spirit of D3,
Semi goes to overtime,
Smeck to throw just one more time
Sadak says “The record’s gone”
Rowan Profs are playing on.
But the Lutes. Make it moot.
Make the big time where they are. 

We’re here at Stagg Bowl 50
Played for half a century
As the best of D-III
We’re here at Stagg Bowl 50
From around the nation
Here for the duration

R.J. Bowers rumbles on. Swarthmore says, program’s gone
Linfield out with a thud; Miracle in the Mud
Stagg Bowl 28, Chenos kicks it through late
Raiders start another run,3 55 opponents stunned

CNU debuts in dance, Stopped clock gives Bridgewater chance
Chuck Moore goes for 95, Raider streak is still alive
Raiders meet the Warhawks, stay off the River Walk
409 for Coach John, Zauhar’s pick, he’s long gone 

We’re here at Stagg Bowl 50
Played for half a century
As the best of D-III
We’re here at Stagg Bowl 50
We don’t make the bracket
You don’t have to ask it

Now the Cru enter the chat, Linfield says the heck with that
Beaver, Garcon, Damien Dumonceaux
Warhawks make their first Stagg, Next year’s there’s a second Stagg
In 07 they break through, it’s a run for them, too
Garcon plays on Sunday night, Game Seven is quite a fight
Leipold goes to D-I, one last title so fun

We’re here at Stagg Bowl 50
Played for half a century
As the best of D-III
We’re here at Stagg Bowl 50
If their call sounds half-assed
Listen to our broadcast

Toms awaken, now they’re gone, Kehres’ coaching days are done,
Kevin Burke Gagliardis twice, ’16 title pays the price
Target Field packs ‘em in, Cortaca’s big crowds begin
Stagg Bowl starts to hit the road, local fans are no-shows

Urban, Dietz and Rindahl coach, Kehres’ tree has D-I growth
Cardinals show they’re here to play, Warhawks drawing 20K,
COVID shuts it all down, Wesley, others leave town
Now no purple in the Stagg, Circle back where we began

We’re here for Stagg Bowl 50
Played for half a century
As the best of D-III
We’re here for Stagg Bowl 50
If this game is lame,
Then we all know who to blame, the same, for shame, the same, for shame, the game is lame so lame

We’re here at Stagg Bowl 50
Played for half a century
As the best of D-III
We’re here at Stagg Bowl 50
Had to write a parody
For this anniversary

We’re here for Stagg Bowl 50
Played for half a century
As the best of D-III
We’re here for Stagg Bowl 50
Singing for the haters
And the tailgaters

We’re here for Stagg Bowl 50
Played for half a century
As the best of D-III
We’re here for Stagg Bowl 50
Gone five hundred miles
With a thousand smiles

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ATN Podcast 345: Well, that doesn’t happen every day

We can’t say in any way, shape or form that we called it. But in podcast 343, we did identify Alma as a team that could challenge Mount Union. But when push comes to shove, no, Alma scoring 24 points in the fourth quarter to defeat Mount Union was not something any of us saw coming.

The magnitude of the victory may not have sunk in yet for everyone at Alma. We catch up with Scots quarterback Carter St. John, who talks us through that final drive and the game-winning touchdown with 10 seconds left. We also talk about the reaction to the loss in Mount Union circles and whether people should circle the wagons around their head coach. Plus, has anyone ever scored 24 in the fourth quarter of an elimination game against Mount Union? Our crack research staff has the answer.

How about another thrilling finish? That’s what happened when Cortland went for two, then held on against a field goal attempt from Grove City in the closing seconds. Cortland was always going for two, and Red Dragons head coach Curt Fitzpatrick comes on to talk about it.

Plus, it’s still hard to believe that North Central has to travel to UW-La Crosse this week. It’s just as unbelievable for North Central coach Brad Spencer, whose monologue about how we have to do better for student-athletes is well worth your time to listen to.

Patrick and Greg talk about all eight second-round games, and take your questions in this edition of the podcast.

This edition of the podcast is sponsored by d3photography.com, the licensed photography bureau contracted by D3sports.com.

We also hand out game balls and spotlight the key stats in the bracket.

Patrick Coleman and Greg Thomas discuss, in this edition of the podcast.

The D3football.com podcast is a weekly in-season podcast by Patrick Coleman and Greg Thomas, which was started in 2007.

Hit play, or subscribe to get this podcast on your mobile device.

Full episode:

You can subscribe to the Around the Nation Podcast in Apple Podcasts, and many other places. You can also get this and any of our future Around the Nation podcasts automatically by subscribing to this RSS feed: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/?feed=podcast

Here’s how to find us on some of the major podcasting apps:

Theme music: Power 2 by DJmentos.
Photo: Alma athletics photo 

Our projected playoff bracket

This jumbled mess is Wheaton’s last-second touchdown grab against Washington U. Any similarities to the playoff picture are intentional.
Wheaton athletics photo by Michael Hudson Photography

By Pat Coleman and Greg Thomas
D3sports.com

It’s not in our nature to ignore data when trying to determine which teams are the best at-large teams. It’s not the norm in other sports, either — this week, we heard from one former committee member who is now on the committee for a different sport who said, essentially, the way they do it in this other Division III sport is the way that we spoke about in our conversation with the NCAA Committee chair, Matt Moore, in Podcast 340.

It’s also the way they do it in another Division III sport we cover: basketball. That was confirmed to us by a committee member recently.

But here in football, we have to ignore information such as the ranking of teams who are regionally ranked opponents. Apparently, it’s just not relevant. A data point we can’t consider.

So, our mock selection committee met Saturday evening to do what we always do: Try to project what the NCAA committee will do, given the same information. We choose four at-large teams. We bracket them using the rules the committee has to use.

And here we go.

  • The selection show streams online (we will have a link on D3football.com) at 5:00 p.m. ET Sunday.

Here’s how the process works for the at-large bids. The committee traditionally will sit down with a board that includes the top at-large team from each regional ranking, comparing the six teams head-to-head, then select one to put in the field. The committee considers the usual criteria: results vs. Division III teams, strength of schedule, results vs. regionally ranked teams, head-to-head results and results vs. common opponents. As we get closer to the end of the process, though, the committee can consider non-Division III games as well. And with just four spots and more than twice as many candidates, expect every piece of data possible to be used.

But as long as “results” only means “win-loss record.” And as long as all regionally ranked teams are considered equal.

There is no Pool B bid this year, and only one Pool B-eligible team.

It’s a long process, coming up with regional rankings, then trying to pick four at-large teams. We spent a good amoung of time hashing this out in audio format, on a Twitter space. We would highly recommend listening here, as we won’t go through our process in quite as much detail here.

The committee will start with the top at-large team from each of the six regions on the board.

For the sake of time, we put in UW-Whitewater, who will definitely be picked as an at-large team. That’s because of the Warhawks’ strong resumes using the official Division III selection criteria of results against Division III opponents, Division III strength of schedule, results against regionally ranked opponents, head-to-head competition and results against common opponents.

Those are the only official criteria referenced. The D3football.com Top 25 is not considered. Nor is the AFCA Top 25.

When we get to the remaining three spots, we are considering the following teams: Salve Regina from Region 1, Union from Region 2, Berry from Region 3, Hope from Region 4, Wheaton from Region 5 and St. John’s from Region 6. Here’s how this group stacks up in the primary criteria of results against D-III opponents (condensed down to W-L), strength of schedule and results against regionally ranked opponents.

Team W-L SOS W-L vs. RRO
Salve Regina 8-2 .532 1-1
Union 9-1 .556 1-1
Berry 9-1 .457 1-1
Hope 8-2 .623 1-2
Wheaton 9-1 .525 1-1
St. John’s 8-2 .635 2-1

Of the teams now on the table, St. John’s has the highest SOS and the best result… excuse me, W-L record against regionally ranked opponents. St. John’s is the next pick in the field.

Next team up from Region 6 is Linfield. Board looks like this:

Team W-L SOS W-L vs. RRO
Salve Regina 8-2 .532 1-1
Union 9-1 .556 1-1
Berry 9-1 .457 1-1
Hope 8-2 .623 1-2
Wheaton 9-1 .525 1-1
Linfield 8-1 .510 0-1

Things are getting more difficult, but we can eliminate a few teams. We can eliminate Linfield as the only team here without a win against a regionally ranked opponent. Of the teams that have two losses, we can eliminate Salve Regina with the much lower SOS. Of the 9-1 teams, we can eliminate Berry with the worst SOS.

Of the remaining 9-1 teams, we can eliminate Wheaton because Union has the better SOS, by a fairly comfortable margin. And then between Hope and Union, Union has the better results against regionally ranked opponents. Hey, if they say it’s just wins and losses, that’s what we’re going with, but even so, Union’s win is against a regional No. 1, while Hope’s is against the team we will be listing No. 6 in Region 5. Union gets in the field.

They are replaced by Muhlenberg. The board:

Team W-L SOS W-L vs. RRO
Salve Regina 8-2 .532 1-1
Muhlenberg 9-1 .548 0-1
Berry 9-1 .457 1-1
Hope 8-2 .623 1-2
Wheaton 9-1 .525 1-1
Linfield 8-1 .510 0-1

Here, Muhlenberg is better than Linfield among 1-loss teams with no wins against RRO. Hope is still the better 2-loss team than Salve Regina. Berry is the lowest SOS among 1-loss teams. And we’re left with Muhlenberg and Wheaton among 1-loss teams.

We don’t know what the value of a win against a regionally ranked opponent is, but in our estimation, it probably overcomes .023 of SOS. In addition, the committee absolutely knows that a .525 in a 10-team conference is pretty good. A conference with just one non-conference game never has the opportunity to rack up a .548 SOS, for all intents and purposes. Even John Carroll, who played Whitewater, only has a .535 SOS in the 10-team Ohio Athletic Conference.

Wheaton against Hope is a toss-up. But this committee has to have enough football people who understand that of course, nobody is beating North Central this year, so Wheaton’s loss there is no surprise. And although numbers say one thing, Wheaton’s schedule is definitely as good as, if not better than Hope.

We pick Wheaton. And that’s the proper choice.

Click to enlarge or tap to download if on mobile:

There are too many teams in the eastern part of the country to confine to a bracket or two, so we did what committees recently have done and created an eastern wing in some of our other brackets, with crossover at the quarterfinal level. This still hamstrings us in the UW-La Crosse bracket, where the Wheaton/St. John’s/UW-Whitewater/Bethel quadrant isn’t ideal, but then again, none of those teams is unbeaten and Whitewater beat St. John’s handily, while St. John’s beat Bethel handily. It looks terrible in terms of the names, but everyone other than Whitewater has a resume that has issues.

Here’s the set of regional rankings we worked with. This includes the ranked teams in each region, although the committee likely has more in reserve in case a region runs out of them.

Remember to keep an eye out for the official bracket announcement show. We’ll have it for you at 5 p.m. ET.