Quick Hits: Predicting first-round playoff scores

Posted on November 18, 2016 by Pat Coleman

The story goes, one day on a long ride to a playoff game at Thiel (which tells you how long ago this happened), Pat and Keith decided to pass the time by guessing not just the winner of each first-round playoff game, but the score. And there was born the expectations game: Do we expect a close game? A high-scoring game? A blowout? Does everyone agree on who will win? Those are the factors worth looking at.

Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps, Pat Coleman, Adam Turer, Frank Rossi and Josh Smith each take their guesses at scores for each first-round game.

— Pat Coleman (d3photography.com photo)

Mary Hardin-Baylor bracket
Keith’s take: UMHB 55, Redlands 14 Ryan’s take: UMHB 63, Redlands 7 Pat’s take: UMHB 56, Redlands 7	Adam’s take: UMHB 52, Redlands 10 Frank’s take: UMHB 47, Redlands 10 Josh’s take: UMHB 56, Redlands 6
Consensus: Mary Hardin-Baylor, by quite a lot.
Keith’s take: Hardin-Simmons 31, Linfield 30 Ryan’s take: Linfield 33, Hardin-Simmons 28 Pat’s take: Hardin-Simmons 35, Linfield 34	Adam’s take: Linfield 24, Hardin-Simmons 23 Frank’s take: Linfield 35, Hardin-Simmons 24 Josh’s take: Linfield 24, Hardin-Simmons 21
Consensus: A split decision favoring the visitors, but since all comers think the game will be close, looks like a toss-up.
Keith’s take: Wheaton 29, Huntingdon 27 Ryan’s take: Huntingdon 35, Wheaton 31 Pat’s take: Wheaton 45, Huntingdon 13	Adam’s take: Huntingdon 40, Wheaton 34 Frank’s take: Wheaton 30, Huntingdon 20 Josh’s take: Wheaton 38, Huntingdon 24
Consensus: Almost everyone thinks Huntingdon can score on Wheaton, with a couple people thinking they can score more.
Keith’s take: N. Central 52, Rose-Hulman 35 Ryan’s take: N. Central 49, Rose-Hulman 7 Pat’s take: N. Central 56, Rose-Hulman 17	Adam’s take: N. Central 45, Rose-Hulman 24 Frank’s take: N. Central 37, Rose-Hulman 13 Josh’s take: N. Central 48, Rose-Hulman 14
Consensus: North Central will win, but Rose-Hulman might score some points. Or might not.

Alfred bracket
Keith’s take: Alfred 40, Bridgewater State 17 Ryan’s take: Alfred 41, Bridgewater State 10 Pat’s take: Alfred 54, Bridgewater State 7	Adam’s take: Alfred 35, Bridgewater State 6 Frank’s take: Alfred 40, Bridgewater State 24 Josh’s take: Alfred 38, Bridgewater State 28
Consensus: If you’re an Alfred fan, stop reading after the first four predictions.
Keith’s take: Husson 27, Western New England 24 Ryan’s take: Western New England 31, Husson 24 Pat’s take: Husson 45, Western New England 41	Adam’s take: Western New England 27, Husson 24 Frank’s take: Husson 30, Western New England 27 Josh’s take: Western New England 24, Husson 23
Consensus: The biggest wild card in the entire first round. Three each way. But seven points is the widest margin.
Keith’s take: Mount Union 33, Hobart 21 Ryan’s take: Mount Union 45, Hobart 23 Pat’s take: Mount Union 41, Hobart 31	Adam’s take: Mount Union 41, Hobart 20 Frank’s take: Mount Union 34, Hobart 20 Josh’s take: Mount Union 28, Hobart 10
Consensus: Hobart will make a good showing, but Mount Union will win.
Keith’s take: Johns Hopkins 38, Randolph-Macon 21 Ryan’s take: Johns Hopkins 34, Randolph-Macon 21 Pat’s take: Johns Hopkins 51, Randolph-Macon 10	Adam’s take: Johns Hopkins 31, Randolph-Macon 13 Frank’s take: Johns Hopkins 34, Randolph-Macon 23 Josh’s take: Johns Hopkins 42, Randolph-Macon 17
Consensus: Various ways of saying Johns Hopkins will win.

St. Thomas bracket
Keith’s take: St. Thomas 55, Northwestern (Minn.) 7 Ryan’s take: St. Thomas 52, Northwestern (Minn.) 13 Pat’s take: St. Thomas 63, Northwestern (Minn.) 7	Adam’s take: St. Thomas 56, Northwestern (Minn.) 0 Frank’s take: St. Thomas 35, Northwestern (Minn.) 10 Josh’s take: St. Thomas 49, Northwestern (Minn.) 3
Consensus: St. Thomas in a win worthy of a 1-seed.
Keith’s take: Coe 16, Monmouth 13 Ryan’s take: Coe 31, Monmouth 27 Pat’s take: Coe 31, Monmouth 24	Adam’s take: Coe 28, Monmouth 27 Frank’s take: Monmouth 27, Coe 24 Josh’s take: Coe 21, Monmouth 7
Consensus: Fairly confident Coe will win, but not by much.
Keith’s take: St. John’s 30, UW-Platteville 28 Ryan’s take: St. John’s 42, UW-Platteville 33 Pat’s take: UW-Platteville 31, St. John’s 27	Adam’s take: UW-Platteville 24, St. John’s 21 Frank’s take: UW-Platteville 34, St. John’s 30 Josh’s take: UW-Platteville 35, St. John’s 34
Consensus: A great game with the slight edge to UW-Platteville. Total of scores, UW-Platteville, 185-184.
Keith’s take: UW-Oshkosh 49, Washington U. 20 Ryan’s take: UW-Oshkosh 42, Washington U. 27 Pat’s take: UW-Oshkosh 56, Washington U. 10	Adam’s take: UW-Oshkosh 52, Washington U. 28 Frank’s take: UW-Oshkosh 34, Washington U. 14 Josh’s take: UW-Oshkosh 54, Washington U. 3
Consensus: UW-Oshkosh, even if Wash U might score some points.

Whitewater bracket
Keith’s take: John Carroll 28, Olivet 10 Ryan’s take: John Carroll 56, Olivet 3 Pat’s take: John Carroll 40, Olivet 14	Adam’s take: John Carroll 42, Olivet 10 Frank’s take: John Carroll 42, Olivet 21 Josh’s take: John Carroll 42, Olivet 10
Consensus: John Carroll will win. And apparently hit all of its extra points.
Keith’s take: Wesley 24, Stevenson 23 Ryan’s take: Stevenson 35, Wesley 34 Pat’s take: Wesley 38, Stevenson 28	Adam’s take: Wesley 38, Stevenson 14 Frank’s take: Wesley 40, Stevenson 30 Josh’s take: Wesley 35, Stevenson 17
Consensus: Generally Wesley in a good game, but not unanimous.
Keith’s take: Thomas More 35, Wittenberg 24 Ryan’s take: Wittenberg 28, Thomas More 27 Pat’s take: Thomas More 27, Wittenberg 21	Adam’s take: Thomas More 42, Wittenberg 24 Frank’s take: Wittenberg 20, Thomas More 17 Josh’s take: Thomas More 28, Wittenberg 24
Consensus: Thomas More as the home in a 4-5 game is getting those kind of predictions.
Keith’s take: UW-Whitewater 35, Lakeland 10 Ryan’s take: UW-Whitewater 59, Lakeland 7 Pat’s take: UW-Whitewater 56, Lakeland 14	Adam’s take: UW-Whitewater 49, Lakeland 13 Frank’s take: UW-Whitewater 35, Lakeland 7 Josh’s take: UW-Whitewater 63, Lakeland 7
Consensus: UW-Whitewater, although a four-touchdown range in what UWW might score.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below, or tweet at us at @D3Keith, @NewsTipps and @d3football. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks and the highlights from Round 1.

ATN Podcast: The bracket reaction

Posted on November 14, 2016 by Pat Coleman

We’re still feeling really good about this bracket — about the teams selected, about the first-round pairings, about so much of it. We’ll hear from the NCAA committee chair, Jack McKiernan, gets Keith’s view on watching his alma mater clinch an automatic bid and talk about that John Carroll-Mount Union game. Plus, we’ll discuss who got the best and the toughest draws, what the best first-round games are, what (if anything) the committee got wrong and more in this week’s Around the Nation Podcast.

This week’s podcast is sponsored by the City of Salem, hosts of Stagg Bowl XLIV. For more information about the Stagg Bowl or any national championship Salem hosts, visit salemchampionships.com.

The Around the Nation Podcast is a weekly conversation between Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan covering the wide range of Division III football. It drops on Monday morning weekly throughout the season.

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Quick Hits: One last week for all the marbles

Posted on November 11, 2016 by Pat Coleman

As this portion of the Quick Hits season draws to a close, we tackle the big rivalry games, the playoff picture and all the rest. Our guest prognosticator is Frank Rajkowski, who covers St. John’s football for the St, Cloud Times.

— Pat Coleman

Which Week 11 game is the game of the week?

Keith’s take: No. 18 St. John Fisher at No. 14 Alfred. There are other big games, but none impact the potential playoff field like whether or not the Cardinals are in Pool C.	Ryan’s take: No. 18 St. John Fisher at No. 14 Alfred. Likely to be much more of a dogfight than the other game between Top 25 teams.	Pat’s take: No. 8 St. John’s at Concordia-Moorhead. This game is frequently given to last-second heroics, and it has playoff implications.
Adam’s take: No. 18 St. John Fisher at No. 14 Alfred. Every team on the Pool C bubble will have an eye on this one.	Frank’s take: No. 16 John Carroll at No. 1 Mount Union. The Purple Raiders haven’t had a real test. This will show us where they’re at.	Frank’s take: I want to say St. John’s at Concordia since a lot is on the line and, you know, I’ll be covering it. But it’s hard to pick against ranked teams playing for a conference title, when top-ranked Mount Union plays host to No. 16 John Carroll.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to get upset?

Keith’s take: No. 8 St. John’s, and to a lesser degree No. 17 Wabash. Each puts its 8-1 record on the line vs. 7-2 foe; Johnnies have lost 3 of 4 to Concordia-Moorhead.	Ryan’s take: No. 25 St. Lawrence. WPI played Hobart close — in fact, the Engineers’ three losses all season were by a total of nine points.	Pat’s take: None. Going with a good old-fashioned slate of chalk. Get it, slate? Chalk?
Adam’s take: No. 8 St. John’s at Concordia-Moorhead. The Cobbers create some more Pool C chaos and stake a claim to one of the six bids.	Frank’s take: No. 21 Case Western Reserve vs. Carnegie Mellon. CMU has been playing consistent ball while Case had a scare last week.	Frank’s take: I guess the Top 25 team with the toughest test is No. 8 St. John’s, which travels to Concordia in a game that both teams have to win if they want to keep their shot at an at-large bid alive.

Who salvages a poor season with a win in the finale?

Keith’s take: Pacific has won six or seven games for three seasons running, but has three losses by four points or fewer this season. The Boxers win at home vs. Puget Sound to get to 4-5.	Ryan’s take: Albion. My, how far the Britons have fallen.	Pat’s take: Williams. I’m going with the Ephs because Amherst is having an uncharacteristically bad year and Williams, while winless, should smell a chance.
Adam’s take: Hampden-Sydney defeats rival Randolph-Macon in The Game, because the ODAC can’t possibly have a clear outright champion two years in a row, can it?	Frank’s take: Wesley. “Poor” is a relative term, and a two-loss season is considered such for Wesley. A win salvages the season with a playoff berth.	Frank’s take: Bethel can salvage a .500 season with a win at Hamline. The Pipers are already assured of finishing .500 for the first time since 1997. A victory would give Hamline its first winning season since 1995.

Which team ranked No. 1 in its region has the closest game in Week 11?

Keith’s take: Mount Union. The Purple Raiders look as dominant as always, especially with a D that’s allowed 42 points in six games, but the Blue Streaks (39 in past six) could be their equal.	Ryan’s take: Alfred, but I guess that goes without saying based on my answer to the first question.	Pat’s take: Mount Union, vs. John Carroll. Going with an alternate view here.
Adam’s take: Alfred is the top team in the East, but plays No. 2 St. John Fisher. It would be a stunner if this isn’t the closest.	Frank’s take: Alfred, vs. St. John Fisher. Their closeness in ranking is fitting as these teams should battle to the finish line.	Frank’s take: Pretty obviously Alfred, which is ranked No. 1 in the East, but faces St. John Fisher, ranked No. 2.

Who goes into the playoffs without momentum?

Keith’s take: I really looked for other options here, but Alfred seems like the likeliest team to both lose and still get into the postseason..	Ryan’s take: John Carroll. Finishing out the season against The Machine takes its toll.	Pat’s take: The winner of the ODAC. The fact that I can’t even easily determine who that will be says it all.
Adam’s take: No. 23 Stevenson may have peaked too soon. The Mustangs enter the playoffs following a loss to 3-6 Wilkes and an uninspiring performance against 3-6 Lycoming.	Frank’s take: Western New England. With a QB named “Victory,” Coast Guard ends the season with a victory as the Golden Bears potentially rest some players.	Frank’s take: Olivet has already wrapped up an automatic bid. But the Comets have given up 115 points over three games. That could continue against Trine (6-3), averaging 35.4 points per game.

Alma mater excluded, pick a winner in a rivalry game.

Keith’s take: Wesleyan (6-1) keeps Trinity Conn. from an unbeaten season and opens the door for Tufts (6-1) to claim NESCAC by beating Middlebury (6-1).	Ryan’s take: Case Western Reserve over Carnegie Mellon. Finishing undefeated, this is a team that WILL be riding high going into the postseason.	Pat’s take: Monmouth. Haven’t lost to Knox in how long? Add one year to the streak.
Adam’s take: No. 17 Wabash could extend its Monon Bell win streak to a record eight in a row. A win could also secure a Pool C berth for the Little Giants. I’m picking the Tigers to play spoiler and snap DePauw’s losing streak.	Frank’s take: RPI, vs. Union. RPI has played very strong football at home vs. Union over the past years, even as the underdog. Their experience at defense helps keep it close enough for a late win.	Frank’s take: Well, I went to St. Cloud State (which closes its season vs. Minnesota-Duluth). But Mount Union-John Carroll is usually a game to watch. I’m not going out on any limb here. But I’ll take the Purple Raiders.

We invite you to add your predictions in the comments below. Download the Around the Nation podcast on Mondays, where Pat and Keith review the picks that were prescient, and those that were terribly off base.

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Monthly Archives: November 2016