 North Central will need to generate some offense in order to beat UW-Whitewater, we think |
In the regional finals, the field has been whittled down to just eight. As in years past, Pat, Keith and Ryan now take you a little deeper into their rationale for the winners and scores that are picked.
Aside from Mount Union and Alfred, the others are not unfamiliar foes: there are the MIAC conference-mates, the regular South Region powers and Midwest teams again battling it out in the postseason. We’ve seen a version of each of these three games at least once since 2007.
Does that make the comparisons any easier? Perhaps. Compiled without consulting with each other, we give you our thoughts. Don’t hesitate to give us yours in the comments section.
Ryan: Wesley 31, Mary Hardin-Baylor 24
This might be my favorite rivalry-that-isn’t-officially-a-rivalry game in the country. Over the past five seasons, these two teams have met four times — with Wesley winning the first two meetings and UMHB the next two — and the outcome is usually an exciting one. This year, it’s not the things that will happen that are significant, it’s be the ones that won’t happen: UMHB won’t be anywhere close to its average of nearly 500 yards of offense a game; Wesley’s two-headed rushing attack won’t be called upon much; and there won’t be a shortage of turnovers. The team with the better defense will be the factor on Saturday. In that case, the nod goes to the corps led by Chris Mayes, Mike Asiedu and Aaron Benson.
Pat: Wesley 35, Mary Hardin-Baylor 30
The game may well be a welcome relief for the Wesley players after the events of the week, in which four of their teammates, all from the playoff roster, were arrested and charged in connection with burglaries of dorm rooms over Thanksgiving break. Wesley is facing a souped-up version of Salisbury, with the ability to pass the ball. But I’m still concerned about the Mary Hardin-Baylor defense. I do recognize that they performed better down the stretch and have so far in the postseason, but Howard Payne, Sul Ross State and Texas Lutheran were the bottom three teams in total offense in the ASC. Wesley will be a different type of team.
Keith: Wesley 20, Mary Hardin-Baylor 15
I think all four games Saturday turn on defense. No surprises between the Wolverines and Cru, who won’t have any of the jitters a team making its first trip to Dover might. Wesley is talented enough in the secondary to make UMHB one-dimensional, and fast enough to play its assignments when the Cru runs option. The Wolverines will miss the four players kicked off the team after their arrests for burglary (hat tip to WDEL’s Sean Greene) — but they were mostly offensive contributors, including WR DeAndre Fowlkes. Deep enough to persevere through 11 injuries already, what’s four more players to replace? UMHB is well-tested from the ASC schedule and seems to have hit another gear late in the season (378-32 the past five games). The line will open up some holes against the Wolverines’ oft-talked-about defensive line, but they’ll close up quickly because Wesley can match UMHB’s team speed. The Cru is penalized and turns it over more than is good for an elite team, and that could be their undoing. This will be the first real close game in the five-game series.
Ryan: Mount Union 45, Alfred 7
There’s no doubt that Alfred has impressed me this postseason, becoming that sleeper team for which the dream could end at any moment. The Saxons have offensive balance and have proven that they can win the big game if needed (Fisher and Cortland). But will they again? Yes … in 2011.
Pat: Mount Union 52, Alfred 9
I don’t foresee this game being much different than the rest of the bracket so far against Mount Union. In score, perhaps, but not in the final outcome.
Keith: Mount Union 31, Alfred 10
Before dismissing Alfred offhand, I considered this: The Saxons put up 34 on a defense last week that let one regular-season opponent hit 20; Seven Cortland State opponents were kept in single digits. So why can’t Alfred surprise again? For starters, Mount Union gave up 28 in its opener and has allowed 54 since. Two playoff opponents together have mustered one field goal. The Purple Raiders might be sophomore-laden, but reports of the Machine’s vulnerability are premature. I watched a Mount Union game on DVR and realized I might have been looking at the Purple Raiders backwards. Aside from Cecil Shorts III and Lambert Budzinski, Mount Union lacks star power of previous iterations. But are there any weaknesses? I didn’t see any, and neither will Alfred. QB Tom Secky will have to make quick reads against UMU’s unfamiliar 4-2-5, while his counterpart, Neal Seaman, will have plenty of time in the pocket to come through for key conversions. I don’t see an outlandish final, but I think Mount Union can do roughly what it did to Delaware Valley.
Ryan: St. Thomas 21, Bethel 17
These two teams were evenly matched six weeks ago when they first met, and they’re evenly matched still today. And they both have overcome some big hurdles in competition to get to the regional final. The only difference this time may be that there will be a few more points on the board by close of day Saturday.
Pat: St. Thomas 17, Bethel 15
Teams that love playing each other — at least, St. Thomas loves playing Bethel, preparing for Bethel, etc. Smashmouth football all the way. Big days, potentially, for Logan Flannery and Colin Tobin/Ben Wartman. And with the game on the biggest radio station in the state, there could be more listeners than fans making the short trip. Did Bethel catch lightning in a bottle last week with its surprising field goal or have the Royals found a little confidence for their struggling kicker? Filling the stadium is always harder when the weather gets cold and the students have to pay to get in, but this should get close.
Keith: St. Thomas 14, Bethel 7
Since Minnesota is Pat’s home turf, I’ve seen MIAC teams very little the past few years. I have the least to go on here, but what I do know led me to this: Most rematches bear little resemblance to a first meeting. But all Bethel and St. Thomas want to do is run it down the other’s throat (each averages at least 217 rushing yards per game) and play great defense (St. Thomas has given up 137 points in 12 games, Bethel 139). Good formula for winning in St. Paul in December. So I think this one looks just like the first, low-scoring and rugged. Bethel could crash the party and leave us with the same semifinal matchups as 2007 (Royals at Mount Union, while UW-W and UMHB meet again on the opposite side), but I put this one on St. Thomas’s defense playing just a hair better than Bethel’s.
Ryan: UW-Whitewater 38, North Central 17
The leadership and performance of backup Warhawks quarterback Lee Brekke has served the team well the first two weeks of the playoffs (seven passing touchdowns and nearly 100 points in all), helping to kick around the defenses of teams from my native Indiana. But Brekke isn’t quite Matt Blanchard, and if the latter is to be a factor heading toward the Stagg Bowl, he needs to get his feet wet again before Salem. The UWW offense will score — on the ground and through the air. I suspect North Central’s will as well, but the one-dimensional attack of last weekend won’t get the Cardinals far against the defending national champions. Spencer Stanek will need to throw, a lot.
Pat: UW-Whitewater 24, North Central 13
I don’t know if the weather keeps the score down or the defenses, but I expect this to be a lower scoring game. For North Central to have a shot, they’ll need to have a big day through the air, I think, which is the opposite of the direction they’ve taken the past few weeks. They still have receiving talent on the roster, Steve Hlavac for example, but need to get the ball in the air. UW-Whitewater could win regardless of Matt Blanchard’s status because it should be able to run the ball, even if nobody has against North Central all season.
Keith: UW-Whitewater 16, North Central 13
I gave some serious thought to picking the Cardinals, even though I’m on record saying the Warhawks are the team I think is going to win the tournament. It has nothing to do with home field either — as a player, I always felt there was just as much to like about being on the road as there was to dislike. I think it’ll be a 60-40 or 70-30 split crowd anyway. Points are going to be hard to come by Saturday; North Central is the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense (8.3/game) and has given up double digits twice — 13 and 14. Whitewater is tied with Bethel for sixth in scoring D (11.6/game), but gave up 31 to Trine last week. It might not have been so much weakness exposed as the Thunder being that good. North Central and UW-Whitewater match up physically, and I leaned Warhawks here because in a low-scoring tie game in the fourth, UW-W has the championship grit and the muscle along the line to grind out a game-winning drive. I’ll call an Eric Kindler field goal — he’s 9 of 10 since missing six straight in September — to decide an epic clash.
99 out of 100 times the bigger,better,stronger team wins……Alfred here’s your one chance
let the good times roll
From a Mount Union standpoint, the best result would be a Mount Union and Bethel victory ro ensure a final home game in the semi-finals. However, St. Thomas seems to be on a mission to retain their home field advantage. Their victory over St. Johns during the regular season has provided them with confidence that will carry them to victory Saturday. Division rivalry does make this a real test however which should make for a great game!
Good luck to all the teams this Saturday!!
With snow expected for the NC vs. WW game, how much is the weather going to be a factor? Both run defenses are strong.
I must confess that I haven’t been this pumped about a game since I put on pads for the last time some 29 seasons ago at Bethel. It’s been fun to watch this BU team through the season and into the playoffs. For one of these MIAC teams, this will be “the game of the season” and the other moves on. Having WCCO radio broadcasting and audio streaming live adds a lot of interest (in MN at least). This will be a showcase game for the NCAA Division 3 football playoffs for sure. Go Royals!
Looks like ten inches of score will be on the ground at st thomas by game time tomorrow makes for a interesting. Maybe similar to 2007 when bethel beat central in pella! Should be a great game go royals!
While I don’t realistically expect Alfred to beat MU tomorrow, I also don’t think it’s going to be a 100-0 blowout, either. That said, my alma mater, Lynchburg College, is in the D3 soccer Final Four; surprising everybody along the way, so hey… anything can happen, right?
P.S. Yes, I know; fútbol isn’t football. I’m just making an observation.
I tend to agree with Keith’s assessment of the NC/UWW game. I have seen NC play 2 times this year and their defense is incredible. I agree with all of the guys in saying that NC has got to be more balanced on offense if they have any hope of scoring. If Whitewater pummels this defense than I would feel sorry for anyone else in their path including MT Union.
This just in:
In light of the dvds, video materials and television stolen in the dormatory at Wesley College, the official sponsor for the Wesley-UMHB game is Radio Shack …
I was going to drive down to Naperville but have given up due to the snow already falling up here in Saint Paul. So I will watch the MIAC battle live and then go to the library to watch the video stream of the UWW game at half time.
I was surprised all three prognosticators had UWW over NCC. I think it will be a really tight game with the snow as a wild card. I hope UWW comes out on top.
I would be curious to know if the UWW bus leaves today rather than tomorrow morning with the players. It sounds like SE Wisconsin is going to get hit hard with snow overnight. A two hour drive in the am could really get bogged down given the amounts coming down in SE Wisconsin and in Chicago.
It should be another close battle in Saint Paul, but St. Thomas will just have too much for Bethel to handle. It’ll be cold and snowy, so we should be in for a low scoring grinder.
A friendship grew out of chatting with a couple that we met at a Wednesday night $1 pizza/$1 beer hangout in Tampa two years ago. Turned out that they are Alfred alums, but we didn’t speak lacrosse, and they didn’t know Alfred still had a football team! Being a D3 Football fan (from Mount Union), I kept them apprised of Alfred’s successes, and they even listened (some) to the Saxon’s playoff game last year. But I now realize that I have created a monster! Leading to this Alfred-Mount Union game, they have resorted to sending me e-mails that even trash-talk the “MUCaw!!” LOL!!!
Anyhoo… There is the potential for Mount Union to play five schools in this year’s playoffs that they had never before met on the gridiron (if I read Ric’s web site opposition history section correctly). For this to happen, St. Thomas and North Central need to advance accordingly. I realistically have more faith in St. Thomas doing their part, in order to host Mount Union (road-trip!), than I do in North Central making it through the gauntlet on their side of the bracket (to get to the Stagg Bowl). Should Mount Union’s play reward them, I would like to see them have a different date for the prom. UW-Whitewater actually has the audacity to try to lead on the dance floor from time to time!
Cheers, y’all!
what a great week for div.II and div.III football…….my guesses are whitewater 49-21…..st.thomas 38-20…m-h-b 42-28…mount 35-27………hope there will equal coverage of all the games on monday’s podcast
My take as the snow is continues to come down and cover Saint Paul:
UMHB over W.C. 33-14. I cannot see WC overcoming the “Radio Shack” distraction. Which is (or may be) too bad given that this appeared to be their year from what I was reading.
MU over Alfred 49-6.
UST over Bethel 20-6.
UWW over NCC 35-30.
THIS IS MY FIRST POST OF THE YEAR HERE. I HAVE A QUESTION WHY THE UMHB HATERS B/T THE 3 OR 4 MAIN GUYS ON THIS SITE KEITH, PAT, RYAN UMHB IS THE REAL DEAL AND WILL BE IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME. THERE HASN’T BEEN ANY GOOD WORDS TOWARD THIS TEAM ALL YEAR.
UMHB 56 WC 17
KEITH,PAT,RYAN SEE YA AT THE STAGG BOWL!!!
72 — I hope you come whether your team is there or not. But geez, just because we don’t think you’ll be in the final four, we’re automatically haters? Come on, have a little sense.
Gotta believe the snow in Naperville and the extra curriculars in Dover even the field. As a Mount fan, I’m of course rooting for Bethel, but don’t see any problems for Mount if they have to hit the road a week early.
Given you guys all took the favorites, I’m thinking this could be a very bad quarter final week for y’all
The only lock is in Alliance.
And your score predictions, 70s?
Had to take a break from soccer and push back on the North Central prediction. Hey, they are only Wheaton’s biggest football rival, but I gotta believe that Thorne has them ready for a powerful Whitewater team.
NC 20, WW 16
North Central-31, UWW-17
“Give credit where credit is due”
North Central is an even stronger team this year with a defense that has given up an average of 8.3ppg. This is against strong teams from a strong conference. Now, I will not be hypocritical here and not give UWW credit for their program. They are a great program and everyone knows them for their crazy win streaks and national titles. That’s the problem though, everyone knows about them. Not a whole lot of people pay attention to the boys in red down in Naperville, IL. This year is our year. Give the cardinals the credit they deserve. The better team will win on Saturday. Good luck to two great teams. Go Cards! Spread the Red!
Being a Cards supporter I have to like Bmo’s prediction, although it’s going to be a fantastic game.
Heads up to all interested in the Cardinals vs Warhawks game, there will be an hour long preview show starting at 11 AM tomorrow. You can listen to at wonc.org, with an interview with Coach Thorne at 11:30.
UMHB and Wesley will be the best game tomorrow. UMHB must play the best game of the year to win. I will watch the game via internet. Below are my predictions.
UMHB over Wesley 21-17.
MU over Alfred 52-7.
UST over Bethel 21-10.
UWW over NCC 48-14.
will miss the games due to my daughter’s final soccer game of the season but hope there some competitive games (i.e., no more turkeys).
i think the 52 pt MU prediction is a bit strong vs. the saxons – i think keith’s pick is more likely.
good luck to all teams tmw.
It is a shame that Wesley had to release 4 players from the team. Feel bad for coach Drass. Regardless, UMHB will be in a dog fight tomorrow.
Well, 9 inches of snow already, just keep on snowing baby!! Bethel loves the snow and this will make a wild saturday. I’m going to the game and will be prepared for all the snow. I Predict
Bethel Over st. Thomas 20-14
Mount Union Over Alfread 31-20
Mary Hardin-Bay Over Wesley 24-21
Whitewater Over North Central 28-27 OT 🙂
Yes the UMHB Wesley game will be an old fashioned slug fest! Both are very strong teams, very closely matched. I have seen a steady improvement from this year’s Cru team, they started off kinda sluggish on Defense with a very young and inexperienced secondary. That group of players has settled in and playin now with full confidence and aggressiveness. I don’t think that Pat, Keith and Ryan are prejudiced against the Cru, just unaware of the level of football they are playing at now. UMHB 38 Wesley 21 Mu 45 Alfred 14 UWW 28 NC 21 SThom 21 Bethel 14
bmoooo and ryan4121 are on the right track. NCC’s D has been incredible. allowed only 9 points against a powerful ohio northern team and 6 came on the very last play of the game with the back ups in. Whitewater is obviously a power house, but NCC dominated if not the best one of the best conferences in D3. closest game was 20-0 vs UW Eau Claire. Coppage will not run 38 times vs NCC cus the cards have the best LB in d3 and if UWW tries to run that much they will be in 3rd n long all day. This should be a pretty incredible game though. NCC 24 UWW 14
I certainly am not going to be bold enough to pick the cards, but I do think they will give UWW a great game. It is not often that you have a Wheaton guy rooting for NCC, however I am cheering for them to go all the way!! Go Cards!
Gotta believe that Thorne has them ready? Why doesn’t Leipold also have his team ready? Pretty cliche-ed response.
If Blanchard plays, UWW 24 North Central 7.
If Blanchard doesn’t play, UWW 17, North Central 14.
All of these people picking high North Central scores are predicting they’re going to run on UWW? Chalk me up as dubious.
Theo says:
All of these people picking high North Central scores are predicting they’re going to run on UWW? Chalk me up as dubious.
I would agree with theo if NCC is one dimensional like last week. I am afraid that it will put to much pressure on their defense and Coppedge and company will start to wear them down late in the game. I think it is important that NCC mixes it up early and somehow moves the chains and gains some field position advantage. Of course I am sitting here in my hotel room looking at a bunch of snow coming down and who knows who that gives an advantage to?
I guess everyone is picking Wesley this makes UMHB the underdog. This game will be played and won by the best defense and I believe UMHB will come with the best defense this week. I have watched UMHB defense improve each week and they have played with tenacity. UMHB started the seasn slow and then they started blowingout teams with the widest margin of points. Not only ASC teams but their playoff games were impressive. We all no the going gets tough during the quarterfinals to the champioship game. My prediction is:
MU over Alfred 35-0.
UST over Bethel 21-10.
NCC over UWW 28-14.
UMHB over Wesley 35-28
well….here’s my best “guess”
MOUNT over ALFRED 42-0.
ST. THOMAS over BETHEL 24-14
WHITEWATER over NORTH CENTRAL 21-17
MARY HARDIN BAYLOR over WESLEY 42-21
Wesley has been dominate the whole 1st half……game shouldn’t be as close as it is 12-3 at the half.
Not much to be said…. certainly nothing “positive” from UMHB’s point of view. Wesley was in fact the best team today…..and “we” did all we could to help them. A real drill in self destruction. Oh well we’ll see them again next year. Just a side note…I thought there was some interesting officiating….”they” didn’t call a lot of “holds”….maybe the goal was to just “let them play ” ??
Can Bethel finally get some credit?
Bethel’s good. St. John’s could have/should have beaten St. Thomas, but the Johnnies needed a meaningless touchdown in the final minute to make the score look respectable at Bethel. I doubt Bethel can win at Mt. Union though.
Well I must admit that I was wrong on MHB and North Central. Congrats to Wesley and UWW. I would love to be in Dover next week to see that game. I appreciate watching 2 good teams. Not sure what happened to North Central in the 2nd half. I stood there surprised that NC could not complete more passes. Congrats and Thank You to Bethel!
Were those 4 Wesley players normal contributors during the season or were they back-up players?
There is something wrong with the system when a team like Mt. Union can go fifteen consecutive years without ever playing on the road in the playoffs. The NCAA should go back to having each region host a semi final game every other year.
geiger, I believe that it would be better for DIII if some other teams were truly competitive with Mount Union and Whitewater (and maybe Wesley is there or almost there), but, in sports, it has always been that the stronger team gets home field advantage. This year both Wesley and St. Thomas had better SOS than Whitewater and Mount Union so they deserved the home field advantage. However, St. Thomas lost, and Bethel has a loss on their record. If D3 makes their placements based on empirical data, then it can be defended, but if it is arbitrary, it can’t be defended. Let the teams earn their placement rather than luck out just because they happened to have great year in the right year.
The NCAA has to base whatever criteria objective/subjective completely on the currentl year. Whatever happened last year or the last several years should not be considered. If it is then you would be giving an automatic qualifier every year without at least the benefit of seeing how the current team compares to others this year. This year I do not understand the NCAA regional rankings. At week 8 in the north region they have Wheaton 1 NCC 2 and Mt Union 3. NCC beats 1 but MT Union still leap frogs them to #1. This certainly has the appearance of giving a pass for past glory rather than using whatever criteria they had used week 1-8. This of course allows Mt Union to have a higher ranking come playoff time. Based on this I would be miffed of I was a Wisconsin Whitewater for not getting the same consideration. BTW Whitewater fans surely will admit that they were sweating it out being behind in the 4th Quarter to NCC. I just add that to say I think there are some teams closing in on the purples which makes it all the more important to evaluate each year independent of another.
Quick thoughts:
That was my best week score predicting in a long time. I was in the right neighborhood on all of them. DEFENSE y’all! All the teams still alive are playing it great: Losing teams had 10, 9, 7 and 7 this week.
Yes, Bethel can now get its due. Deserved.
The Purples have had challenges almost every year. MUC not as much because their road has gone through the weaker East and because they’ve been at home, but there have been close games (Rowan ’05, Capital ’06 & ’07 and Wesley ’09) along the way. For UWW, see Linfield ’05, La Crosse & St. John’s ’06, UMHB ’07, Willamette ’08 and Linfield ’09 …
It’s never been a case of the powers having it easy, but they EARN it each time. Home or away, someone had to go toe to toe and beat them. And if not, at least we get a Stagg Bowl with some drama.
See the use of all caps? One word, it works. If you type your whole message in ALLCAPS, we cannot take you seriously 🙂