Triple Take: We predict the scores

We go into everything with expectations. That’s part of human nature, and the approach to the Division III postseason is no different.

Undoing an element of those expectations is the fact that there are no seeds attached to any of the games listed below. Consider this, then, to be a blank slate of sorts. Pat Coleman, Keith McMillan and I give you our individual predictions for Saturday. We didn’t collaborate in any way on these (no discussions, no sneak peeks, etc.) and it appears we have picked a consensus winner in all but a handful of games.

The postseason Triple Take predictions are not intended to be lines on the games, but rather a broad test of outcome vs. expectations.

— Ryan Tipps

Pat: Mount Union 53, Washington and Jefferson 10
Ryan: Mount Union 42, Washington and Jefferson 10
Keith: Mount Union 35, Washington and Jefferson 16

Pat: Montclair State 24, Maine Maritime 19
Ryan: Montclair State 20, Maine Maritime 17
Keith: Montclair State 19, Maine Maritime 7

Pat: Alfred 31, Albright 27
Ryan: Alfred 24, Albright 20
Keith: Alfred 28, Albright 27

Pat: Delaware Valley 37, Susquehanna 14
Ryan: Delaware Valley 31, Susquehanna 13
Keith: Delaware Valley 28, Susquehanna 10

Pat: Wesley 41, North Carolina Wesleyan 17
Ryan: Wesley 34, North Carolina Wesleyan 14
Keith: Wesley 31, North Carolina Wesleyan 3

Pat: Huntingdon 38, Mississippi College 35
Ryan: Mississippi College 24, Huntingdon 7
Keith: Mississippi College 28, Huntingdon 17

Pat: Hampden-Sydney 38, Johns Hopkins 20
Ryan: Hampden-Sydney 28, Johns Hopkins 14
Keith: Hampden-Sydney 35, Johns Hopkins 14

Pat: Thomas More 20, DePauw 17
Ryan: DePauw 20, Thomas More 17
Keith: Thomas More 20, DePauw 9

Pat: UW-Whitewater 58, Lakeland 7
Ryan: UW-Whitewater 52, Lakeland 6
Keith: UW-Whitewater 44, Lakeland 0

Pat: Illinois Wesleyan 24, Wabash 20
Ryan: Illinois Weseylan 28, Wabash 21
Keith: Illinois Wesleyan 14, Wabash 13

Pat: Trine 35, Case Western Reserve 31
Ryan: Case Western Reserve 41, Trine 31
Keith: Case Western Reserve 31, Trine 21

Pat: Wittenberg 20, Mount St. Joseph 6
Ryan: Wittenberg 17, Mount St. Joseph 9
Keith: Wittenberg 21, Mount St. Joseph 3

Pat: Coe 10, St. John’s 7
Ryan: St. John’s 28, Coe 7
Keith: St. John’s 14, Coe 12

Pat: St. Thomas 31, Monmouth 24
Ryan: Monmouth 34, St. Thomas 31
Keith: Monmouth 31, St. Thomas 28

Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 28, Central 17
Ryan: Central 21, Mary Hardin-Baylor 17
Keith: Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Central 24, 2OT

Pat: Linfield 31, Cal Lutheran 14
Ryan: Linfield 38, Cal Lutheran 20
Keith: Linfield 28, Cal Lutheran 21

37 thoughts on “Triple Take: We predict the scores

  1. Mount Union 48, Washington & Jefferson 13
    Montclair St 17, Maine Maritime 13
    ALFRED 31, ALBRIGHT 14
    Delaware Valley 34, Susquehanna 3
    Wesley 42, North Carolina Wesleyan 17
    Miss College 38, Huntingdon 21
    Hampden-Sydney 24, Johns Hopkins 7
    Thomas More 27, DePauw 17
    Whitewater 52, Lakeland 0
    Illinois Wesleyan 24, Wabash 23 *Game of the week
    Trine 28, Case Western Reserve 24
    Wittenberg 34, Mount St. Joseph 14
    St. John’s 13, Coe 10
    St. Thomas 38, Monmouth 20
    Mary Hardin-Baylor 31, Central 13
    Linfield 31, Cal Lutheran 6

    This is not as easy as it looks*

  2. Mount Union 56 W&J 7
    Montclair 28 Maine Maritime 24
    Albright 28 Alfred 27
    Del Val 35 Susquehanna 21
    Wesley 35 NC Wesleyan 17
    Miss Coll 35 Huntingdon 31
    Hampden Sydney 28 Hopkins 21
    Depauw 24 Thomas More 21
    Whitewater 48 Lakeland 0
    Illinois Wesleyan 28 Wabash 24
    Trine 24 Case Western 17
    Wittenberg 21 Mount St. Joseph 10
    St. Johns 21 Coe 14
    St. Thomas 35 Monmouth 28
    Mary Hardin Baylor 35 Central 21
    Cal Lutheran 24 Linfield 21 Upset Special

  3. Let me take a gander at this

    Mount Union 52, W&J 17
    Montclair St 21, Maine Maritime 17
    Alfred 24, Albright 17
    Delaware Valley 37, Susquehanna 10
    Wesley 35, North Carolina W 23
    Miss Coll 27, Huntingdon 21
    Hampden-Sydney 23, John Hopkins 10
    Thomas More 31, Depauw 17
    UW-W 48, Lakeland 3
    Illinois Wesleyan 17, Wabash 14
    CWR 31, Trine 28
    Wittenberg 27, Mount St. Joseph 10
    St Johns 16, Coe 13
    St. Thomas 28, Monmouth 27
    UMHB 34, Central 14
    Linfield 31, Cal Lutheran 28

  4. There’s some tough ones to pick, with a few just taking a guesstimate. Would have to say that I think if Witternberg loses in the UW-W bracket then Whitewater goes to the semi-finals again. I think they have the best shot, if any of knocking off UW-W.

  5. Mount Union and Whitewater in cake walks to the semi’s. No offense, but little to threaten either one of them in their respective brackets. Neither will have a game closer than 20 points, before semi’s.

    Wesley is capable of winning their bracket, but don’t count out MC, HS, or TM. One of those teams will have to have a big day in order to upset the “seeding cart” there. Still Wesley won’t come within 20 of MUC in the Semi’s.

    Now for the St. Johns bracket. Hmmm? The last time the St. Johns lost a home playoff game, (Ten years!) PLU was in the midst of a 5 game road playoff winning streak that lead to the National Championship.

    Its tough to beat any of these regional teams at their home field, so I am going with the home team (except for the possibility of St. Thomas taking out both Monmouth and then St. Johns in consecutive weeks.) If that happens, then UWW will host Linfield in the Semi’s, for a rematch of the 2005 regional finals.

    If UMHB pulls off the upset of Central, then they will have a rematch of the 2004 Stagg Bowl, in the second round? WOW What a stacked region? Still don’t think after all of the tough games and travel that this bracket winner will be able to get past UWW at home. Purple vs. Purple take “5”!

    Speaking of which, it seems to me that this criteria of not counting “non-region opponents losses” for playoff consideration is a bit ridiculous for the following reason:

    In the East, South, North – as specified currently – a team can travel less than 200 miles, play outside of their “region” and not have it count against them? However, in the West, there are teams that have to FLY to CONFERENCE games because of the geographical distances out there (Menlo vs. the rest of the NWC). Or, lets take a Willamette who traveled 5 hours by plane (expensive to boot) for a pre-season game in Minnesota and it counts against their “in-region winning/losing %, whereas a team in Pennsylvania, might travel 200 miles and play “out of their region”? Doesn’t seem like much common sense there!

    The West also gets penalized because of the distances for D-III competition, so they schedule NAIA opponents close enough to drive to. If they win it doesn’t count, but if they Lose, its not supposed to count but it has seemed to? When the SCIAC and NWC have to fly to play each other in non-conference play, that can get very expensive, and creates the need to schedule the NAIA schools.

    Thanks.

  6. Eagle, the 200-mile radius applies anywhere in the country.

    The NCAA has an official table to determine “in-region”

    What specific schools did you have in mind? Let’s check the 200-mile status of that pair.

  7. UMHB I think is over 200 miles from several schools in the confrence. example is Miss. College, La. College, Sul Ross.

  8. Mount Union 24 W&J 19 (not a typo)
    Montclair 31 Maine Maritime 21
    Albright 14 Alfred 27
    Del Val 35 Susquehanna 0
    Wesley 35 NC Wesleyan 17
    Miss Coll 28 Huntingdon 21
    Hampden Sydney 42 Hopkins 21
    Depauw 7 Thomas More 24
    Whitewater 42 Lakeland 3
    Illinois Wesleyan 28 Wabash 31
    Trine 10 Case Western 24
    Wittenberg 31 Mount St. Joseph 10
    St. Johns 21 Coe 7
    St. Thomas 35 Monmouth 28
    Mary Hardin Baylor 35 Central 21
    Cal Lutheran 20 Linfield 42

  9. MUC 52 WJ 6
    Montclair 35 Marine Merrytime 14
    Allbright 21 Alfred 17
    Delaware Valley 48 Susquehana 10

    Wesley 34 NC Wesleyan 21
    Miss Coll 28 Huntington 7
    HSC 32 John Hokins 21
    Thomas More 17 Depauw 10

    UWW 56 Lakeland 0
    IWU 35 Wabash 17
    Trine 21 CWR 20
    Witt42 MTSJ 6

    St Johns 17 Coe 14
    St Thomas 28 Monmouth 21
    Central 24 UMHB 21
    Linfield 35 Cal Luth 21

  10. Mount Union 49 W&J 17
    Montclair 28 Maine Maritime 21
    Albright 35 Alfred 28
    Del Val 28 Susquehanna 7
    Wesley 42 NC Wesleyan 13
    Miss Coll 38 Huntingdon 20
    Hampden Sydney 31 JHU 21
    Thomas More 20 Depauw 13
    Whitewater 56 Lakeland 7
    Wabash 20 Illinois Wesleyan 14
    Case Western 28 Trine 20
    Wittenberg 35 Mount St. Joseph 7
    St. Johns 21 Coe 10
    Monmouth 35 St Thomas 31
    Mary Hardin Baylor 24 Central 21
    Linfield 45 Cal Lutheran 28

  11. Well if NCAA can do things their way so will I
    Mount Union=W St.Thomas =W
    M H B =W
    Linfield =W
    Montclair =W
    Alfred =W
    Del Val =W
    Wesley =W
    Hunt–don =W
    HamSyd =W
    ThomMr =W
    WWWW =W
    Wabash =W
    Trine =W
    Mt ST Joe =W
    ST.John =W

  12. Sorry for not articulating my POINT? LOL

    The point that I was trying to articulate is that there is a HUGE difference between traveling a few hours by bus to a “NON-REGION” foe, losing and not having it count towards your “playoff criteria” vs. traveling a whole day by plane and playing two time zones away and “STILL” being “IN-REGION” by the NCAA criteria. The difference in difficulty is not even comparable, yet under the current rules, one team gets home for dinner, loses, but doesn’t get held to account, whereas the other team travels and plays over a three day journey, and gets held to account (after spending a ton of extra money). Seems like the incentive to travel and play are not on par across the entire D-III landscape. That’s my point, so why use the “IN-REGION” criteria in the first place? ???

  13. I understand that the D-III landscape is mostly in the North East of this great country, but “come on” geography majors, two thirds of the lower 48 are WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. ? Travel times, costs and the inherent challenges therewith are different, and I think there should be some acknowledgement of that? Doesn’t that make any sense? If you have to travel more than 600 miles and fly, there should be a different category for the added difficulty.

  14. Ok then, if we are going to put down scores, let’s try this:

    MUC 56 W&J 7
    Monclair 27 Maine 14
    Alfred 30 ALbright 21
    Del Val 28 Susq 7
    Wesley 31 NC Wes 7
    Miss Coll 21 Hunt 17
    Ham Syd 27 JHU 14
    Thomas More 20 Depauw 14
    UWW 63 Lakeland 7
    Wabash 14 Ill Wes 13
    Trine 21 Case West 20
    Wittenberg 24 MSJ 14
    St Johns 21 Coe 17
    St Thomas 31 Monmouth 20 (upset?)
    Central 24 UMHB 20
    Linfield 48 Cal Lutheran 14

    We can do the second round next week! Wahoo! Good luck to everyone tomorrow, and may everyone play well, have fun, and stay healthy! 🙂

  15. This may be the only way I’ll see my picks

    Neil — you’re using AOL’s built-in browser, which is about the worst browser in use today. AOL keeps you from being able to see the most recent version of any page. You must see outdated stuff all the time.

    Instead of using that built in browser, once you connect to AOL, go to your Start menu and select Internet Explorer. Or better yet, download Firefox and use that as your browser.

  16. Thanks Pat! On behalf of all of us Neil fans! Wahoo! Let’s play fair tomorrow and “NO HAND BALLS” FRANCE!

  17. Mount Union 52 Washington & Jefferson 3
    Montclair St 28, Maine Maritime 24
    Albright 23 Alfred 17
    Delaware Valley 34, Susquehanna 14
    Wesley 38, North Carolina Wesleyan 13
    Miss College 28, Huntingdon 27
    Hampden-Sydney 20, Johns Hopkins 10
    Thomas More 24, DePauw 21
    UWW 70, Lakeland 10
    Illinois Wesleyan 20, Wabash 7
    Case Western Reserve 31 Trine 28
    Wittenberg 24, Mount St. Joseph 7
    St. John’s 17, Coe 6
    St. Thomas 31, Monmouth 28
    UMHB 28, Central 17
    Linfield 38, Cal Lutheran 31

  18. # AC99 Says: November 20th, 2009 at 2:45 pm

    Boys…think twice about your Albright Alfred Selection…Keith, take a shot for once.

    Thought twice BEFORE I posted. I think I’ll stick with my pick.

    The good news I usually go somewhere between 10-6 and 12-4 the first week, so I’m going to be wrong on some. Maybe Albright will win. … that’s sorta the fun of the playoffs, if all the picks were easy, it’d be pretty darn boring.

    And as far as taking a shot FOR ONCE … I guess you missed last year where I picked UW-W and MUC to miss the Stagg Bowl. Or, uh, where I put Rose-Hulman and Gettysburg in this year’s playoffs.

    I might have went with a bunch of favorites above, but I don’t exactly have a track record of being conservative.

    Of course, your post wasn’t really about me. You just wanted to see someone pick Albright to win. Sorry bout that.

  19. I want to be on the record saying a few things … beyond the scores.

    As SAINTSfan said, it’s not as easy as it looks. You can definitely pick a team to win that you could also see losing.

    Even the teams that you don’t pick, doesn’t mean you necessarily don’t think they’re any good. I think W&J has got a better chance of upsetting Mount Union than any team in the first-round I can remember. Having Matt Caponi and Justen Stickley on the coaching staff — two guys who were very good under Larry Kehres not that long ago — I think if anyone will have any extra insight into how they’re going to play this thing, it will be them. I don’t know if they match up talent-wise, I’d assume not, but W&J might not get outcoached. I think that score will be closer than many think.

    Still Wesley won’t come within 20 of MUC in the Semi’s.

    I think Wesley has the talent to go to the Stagg Bowl. There, I said it.

    I like a bunch of tomorrow’s games to be decided in the fourth quarter. I went with a lot of low scores for some reason, to respect some really good defenses I guess … maybe it would help my picks if it rains. 🙂

  20. FIRST THINGS FIRST
    I AM THE REAL UMHB FAN AND HAVE HAD THIS HANDLE FOR YEARS
    WHO EVER YOU ARE UMHB fan:
    WHATEVER!!! BE AREAL FAN GO TO ALL THE GAMES AS I DO AND HAVE SENCE THE “CRU” STARTED 11 SEASONS A AGO.
    NOW TO THE PICKS!!!

    Mount Union 32, Washington & Jefferson 7
    Montclair St 21, Maine Maritime 12
    ALFRED 32, ALBRIGHT 17
    Delaware Valley 34, Susquehanna 10
    Wesley 38, North Carolina Wesleyan 17
    Miss College 21, Huntingdon 24
    Hampden-Sydney 28, Johns Hopkins 7
    Thomas More 32, DePauw 17
    Whitewater 56, Lakeland 0
    Illinois Wesleyan 24, Wabash 32
    Trine 32, Case Western Reserve 24
    Wittenberg 28, Mount St. Joseph 14
    St. John’s 10, Coe 13
    St. Thomas 32, Monmouth 20
    Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Central 13
    Linfield 28, Cal Lutheran 6

    P.S. TO ALL OF YOU!!! YES THERE WILL BE A PURPLE VS PURPLE AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER MATCH UP AGAINT UMHB VS MU AS IT WAS IN 2004 AND OHH YA I REMEMBER IT WILL UMHB BE ON TOP AGAIN AS WE DID IN 2004 AGAINT MU BUT THIS TIME IT WILL BE FOR THE CHAMPIONSHIP!!! THAT PICK COMES TO YA’LL LATER. FOR NOW GOOD LUCK TO ALL. YOU WILL NEED IT.

  21. Neil, you must have a remarkable wife, one who will help you sustain your need for D3sports.

    Now if she can cook… (LOL)

  22. Good luck to all the teams today. Hoping Wesley makes it to match up with MU to see where we stand against the best.

  23. 12-4 here.. I believe Pat got them all, including Coe over St Johns .

    *note: typing in all caps on a computer is shouting at everyone else.. As far as the warning in that paragraph, time will tell. Though the games will get tougher this week. Though you probably already know that in being a real fan for 11 years

  24. I didn’t get Huntingdon/Misssissippi College right (I should have — Keith and Ryan T did) and I didn’t get Alfred/Albright right.

  25. If my counting is correct, Pat and his crystal ball were clearly the best of the staffers, going 13-3 (and notably sweeping the West picks).

    Keith notched a respectable 11-5.

    And I brought up the rear with a gentleman’s 9-7. 😉

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