Tiers of a crown

As Keith McMillan touched on his 2008 season review, I have a theory that tries to make sense of who beats whom during the Division III football season. Instead of thinking about the landscape in terms of regions or conferences, I break it into three tiers.

• Tier I are the elite teams who are likely to finish as national champion. This is a very small group.

• Tier II has great teams who will have great seasons. They will likely win their conference and usually go a couple rounds in the playoffs. But, unless everything breaks for them, they will not win a national championship.

Come playoff time, one or two Tier IIs will be upset by a Tier III. Most Tier IIs will knock each other off in the early playoff rounds or lose to a Tier I, often by 14+ points. If a Tier II team plays a tremendous game and Tier I team plays poorly, an upset is possible.

• Tier III teams are everyone else who makes the playoffs or just misses it. They are good teams and their accomplishments should not be diminished. But, unless they have a very favorable draw, they will be eliminated in the first two weeks of the playoffs. Tier III might beat Tier II if it plays a tremendous game, but the same Tier III is highly unlikely to do that twice in the same postseason. And they definitely don’t beat Tier I.

So why bring this up before teams even break training camp? Why worry think about the playoffs at all when there are hundreds of good stories to follow between now and the Stagg Bowl on December 19? Because the fun of this theory lies in predicting which teams go in which tiers and that changes every year, particularly for Tiers II and III. And that, like the Top 25 Poll released today, is a matter of debate.

Based on my preseason ballot, I’d break them down like this.

• Tier I: Mount Union, UW-Whitewater

Recent seasons make it easy to slot the Purple Raiders and Warhawks here and they stand alone.

• Tier II: Mary Hardin-Baylor, UW-Stevens Point, Hardin-Simmons

These teams could beat a Tier I if they play great and the Tier I stumbles. That’s what separates them from the teams in Tier III who aren’t beating Mount Union or UW-Whitewater. UW-Stevens Point is an easy choice since they return a lot from the team that beat UW-Whitewater last year. Mary Hardin-Baylor hasn’t gotten over the Warhawk hump, but they’ve been competitive. Since the games between teams at this level should be competitive, Hardin-Simmons gets the nod.

A couple more teams will rise to this level, like Wheaton, Wartburg and Willamette did last year. But the first two lose a lot on defense and the third a lot on offense. And if you ask me which teams could upset the two purple powerhouses — and that’s a requirement to be in this tier — right now it’s three’s company.

• Tier III: Everyone else in the Top 25 or receiving votes

This does not mean every other team will have the same level of success. And there will be some wonderful stories at this level that will help define the season ahead. But this is how I see the landscape now.

You know, given all the games that have been played. 🙂

25 thoughts on “Tiers of a crown

  1. Very interesting thoughts here Pat. I would have to tend to agree with you here that there are seperate levels of D3 football. The only thought I have on this is that I would add at least two or three more Tiers. Clumping so many teams into Tier III may be a diservice to the differing levels of success and potential that certain programs may have. Overall though these tiers put an interesting perspective on the season and provides fans with a realistic idea about who has the potential to go all the way.

  2. That’s Gordon’s post, but remember, he’s talking about teams’ capability of winning the national championship. Agreed, certainly others may define success differently.

  3. Sorry Gordon 🙂 Next time I will read the words “posted by” before I respond. Anyway nice post, thanks.

  4. I am shocked that Whitewater only garnered two first place votes. They lose three starters, while we all know what Mount Union lost. Let us not forget that ever since the Warhawks arrived on the scene they have never been blown out by the Purple Raiders. Wasn’t last years game a six point win by Mt. Union or something of that nature? They lose their star QB and RB and are still favorites?
    I did see Sporting News listed UW-W #1. Anyway, here’s hoping for another D3 great season and Stagg Bowl V.

  5. Bias, UWW got 2 first place votes and 23 second place votes.

    We fans also know that MUC has won 2 of the last 3 games versus UWW.

  6. I know this. All I’m saying is Whitewater returns 19 of 22 starters and Mount Union lost their A-A QB and RB. And, it’s not like they blew out WW in the Stagg Bowl.

  7. Just can’t argue with Mt. Union getting the nod at #1. The one thing with Mt is that they do not rebuild they reload year in and year out. Hence for the past decade we have learned that if they were fantastic one year they are most likely going to be fantastic the next.

  8. But, Whitewater is on the same level now and they return a lot more, that’s all I’m saying. To only garner two of 25 first place votes under that circumstance in my opinion is stunning.

  9. Bias:

    Thanks for sparking an interesting conversation. It’s nice to have football talk in August.

    While Whitewater is on the same level now (as you said), they aren’t at Mount Union’s level historically in terms of replacing guys without missing a beat over an extended period of time. The Warhawks might get there, but they aren’t there yet.

    For Mount Union, Smeck is followed by Adamson who is followed by Bruney who is followed by Greg Michelli at quarterback. Chuck Moore gives way to Dan Pugh who gives way to Nate Kmic at running back. Adam Marino gives way to Randall Knapp who gives way to Pierre Garcon who gives way to Cecil Shorts at wide receiver. All of those names were All-Americans at some point and this is just on the offensive side of the ball.

    No one else has that cycle of success right now.

  10. Chad Wurth gave way to Justin Beaver who gave way to the two headed monster of Levell Coppage/Antwan Anderson.
    The team defense under the guidance of Coach Borland has been unreal. They force more turnovers than any D on any level that I have ever witnessed. And guess what 9 of those guys come back lead by A. White and T. Shumpert.
    All they lose on the offensive side of the ball is a tackle. They play in the #1 conference in D3 and are battle tested and experienced. We know how Jeff and Co. will react in the Stagg Bowl (if they get there) not so much with this years Mt. Union team (if they get there).
    I just don’t think that the fact that Mt. Union is a powerhouses and the fact that they won the National Championship the year before should automatically qualify them for the #1 spot. If I remember correctly the year after WW won they were preseason #2 the next year.

  11. Bias — can you guarantee me that your academically ineligible quarterback is back for the fall?

  12. Gordon, don’t forget about Ballard, Borchert, and Jorris:

    Ballard: 1991-1993
    Borchert: 1994-1997
    Smeck: 1998-2000
    Adamson: 2001-2002
    Bruney: 2003-2004
    Jorris: 2005-2006
    Michelli: 2006-2008

  13. Kirasdad:

    Thanks. I couldn’t remember whether Ballard or Borchert came first.

    Bias:

    Fair points. That line of succession isn’t as long as Mount Union’s, but you can make a very, very good case for picking the Warhawks as No. 1.

  14. Well Pat, I was unaware of such a situation with Jeff Donovan. That would be a major blow to be sure, but I would be willing to bet that Lance makes sure he gets his act together. The football team garner some bad press this year, as I’m sure some of you know, but I’ve never heard a situation where a championship contender had their QB academically ineligible. I’m not trying to say he would/should get a free pass, but I’m 95% sure he will be there and 99% sure he will be there come conference play.

  15. BiasD3FootballFan Says:

    August 5th, 2009 at 5:07 pm
    But, Whitewater is on the same level now and they return a lot more, that’s all I’m saying. To only garner two of 25 first place votes under that circumstance in my opinion is stunning.

    Not even close. When UWW has won as many consecutive conference championships, comes even close to Mts. winning percentage over the past 10+years, maybe challenges the all division consectutive win streak (which mount broke then broke again). Can you say UWW is on the same level as Mt. With that being said UWW is solid and I would have given them the nod for first place knowing what they have coming back and MT losing Kmic/Micheli. Good luck this year. PS. Nobody should compare their team w/ “The Machine” just not fair!

  16. i just cant see that happening, no disrespect to either one of them.lota freshman qbs, and rbs.dont forget terrance morring. i duno i just get the feeling theyll be a fresh starting or cecil will move back to qb. bill borchert did it.

  17. I think we’ll see a lot of Cecil……all over the field. Too athletic, and Rocco is a pure drop back guy. Should be another great year for the raiders. 17 returning.

  18. 17 returning starters for Mount and 18 for UWW? with question marks around the eligibility of the UWW QB and MUC’s history of the reload, its a no brainer to make the Raiders the preseason favorite. I also think the Raiders will walk through their schedule but UWW will have some battles.

  19. Gordon…..you are right in that UMHB hasn’t gotten “over the hump” with UWW yet….four games…two blowouts and 2 close ones. For that reason I won’t question your Tier one selections…..but “it” will happen …we will beat UWW!! Having said that, I must say that I’m somewhat surprised, that you give Hardin Simmons the “nod”, even before the season starts,…when they’ve lost 9 of the last 10 games to UMHB. 🙂

  20. As a WARHAWK backer I really can’t argue with Mount Union’s selection as the #1 ranked team despite their loses at quarterback and running back. While those two were absolute studs you just can’t ignore what Mount Union has done over the past decade. They are simply on a level above everyone else. Sure we’ve come close but with one exception we haven’t got over that hump despite having the best teams we’ve fielded in the 40+ years I have followed the program. We have a lot more important things to focus on than our preseason ranking. One last thing, Jeff Donovan will be eligible and under center this year, book it. I can’t wait for it to get started.

  21. Gordon’s tier grouping is perfect except I’d suggest adding North Central to tier 2. They come from a great conference and are loaded for bear this season.

    Who should be ranked where? Only thing I know for sure is that MUC/UWW are head and shoulders above the rest of D3 right now. Mount has been there for 15 years, but now Whitewater has joined the party at the top. Unless there is a huge upset come playoff time, the Stagg will be purple & black for the 5th time in a row.

    As a MUC guy, I would have voted Whitewater #1 with Mount #2 simply because of the HUGE holes created by the graduation of Micheli and Kmic. I’ve been following the Raiders for years and fully understand the quality depth that LK has stockpiled in Alliance and have confidence in him finding capable replacements, but Micheli and Kmic were special. They might be replaced on the field with guys very good, but their leadership and work ethic off the field will be the biggest loss. They were true difference makers.

    Is it football season yet?

  22. I’m a little late to the party…I’ve left the good ole state of Wisconsin for football rich Nebraska…but I’m still going to follow the Warhawks as I’m just a recent alumni…with that said…I can not argue with MUC being the #1 team…hell I want them to be so WW has something to gun for…beat the best team and then you can get respect…WW is only 1-3 in the last 4 games vs MUC…sure all have been close but close doesn’t cut it…MUC could just as easily be 4-0 in those games as WW could be 4-0…its how you handle the breaks and who makes the least mistakes…

    I do question the total DEPTH of MUC’s conference compared to the WIAC in terms of consecutive conference championships but that doesn’t mean that MUC wouldn’t have done the same thing in the WIAC…I just think the WIAC week in and week out is the top conference in DIII from top to bottom…

    It’s fun to talk about national championships…but now it’s time for the teams to start focusing on Week 1 on the schedule and take care of business and hopefully (or maybe not hopefully for some) we see WW and MUC in the Stagg again this year…I’d love to make the trip out to Salem again this year…but until then…best of luck to all DIII teams…unless of course you are playing the Warhawks 🙂

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