Predicting the Stagg Bowl has now reached double digits.
Dating to 1999, this marks the 10th consecutive time that we have made predictions for the championship game, though it hasn’t always been with this broad of a forecasting base. To cap the season, we have several voices leading off the discussion about Saturday’s game.
Last year, Tom Pattison of Warhawkfootball.com and Matt Barnhart of Bridgewaterfootball.com were our “champion†pickers, each foreshadowing a 27-24 Whitewater victory. The actual final score was 31-21.
Previous years’ picks: 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007
This year is unique in several ways, and with that comes unique ways of looking at
the matchup. The takes:
Pat Coleman, D3football.com
I haven’t had a great postseason of picks after a good early start, and often it seems to be from picking UW-Whitewater wrong. Last year we saw the key to beating Mount Union, and part of it is containing Nate Kmic. One thing I’ve seen from the Warhawks this year is the ability to limit, if not eliminate, yards after contact. And that’s despite starting two new linebackers. If the game becomes a battle of the secondaries, I like Whitewater’s chances. If it’s a battle of the kicking game, then I like Whitewater even more. But I worry about the quarterback play when I make this prediction. Mount Union clearly has a decided edge in Greg Micheli, with both his arm and his legs. I’m not big into cliches about wanting it more, or stuff like that. I just can foresee UW-Whitewater doing enough things right to win this game.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 20
Keith McMillan, D3football.com
I’d like to call this one a toss-up, but I’m not sure it is one. Unless Anthony White and the UW-Whitewater defensive line can cause some disruption among Luke Summers and the Mount Union offensive line (yeah, I just name-dropped linemen), it seems like the Mount Union offense will hum as usual. It will be physical, and the Warhawks will get their licks in, but if they defend their title, it would be a mild surprise to me. If all else is equal, the combination of the most efficient passer in college football history and the leading rusher in NCAA history should put Mount Union over the top.
Mount Union 38, UW-Whitewater 20
Tom Pattison, Warhawkfootball.com
So here we go again. Whitewater vs. Mount Union IV. From a Whitewater perspective, looking at the statistics of Nate Kmic, Greg Micheli and Cecil Shorts, you wonder if the Warhawks belong on the same field. Had the same feeling in ’07. A reporter from the Roanoke area repeatedly tried to get MUC head coach Larry Kehres this week to say that the Purple Raiders were out for revenge following UWW’s 31-21 win in last year’s Stagg Bowl. No dice! Kehres isn’t looking for revenge, he is looking for
his team to play error-free football, something it did not do in last year’s game. The farther you go in the playoffs, the more magnified are turnovers and missed scoring opportunities in the Red Zone. Whitewater getting back to the Stagg Bowl after losing 24 seniors and 17 starters from last year’s National Championship team is simply amazing. The team jelled early in the season and rode its defense to a share of the WIAC title. As a fifth seed, UWW needed to travel to Salem, Ore., to slow down the high octane offense of Willamette. Last week, the Hawks dominated a Mary Hardin-Baylor team that most predicted would beat Whitewater and advance to the Stagg Bowl. The Hawks possess a strong, physical, fast defense. The offense features two 1000-yard rushers for the first time in school history. They are not Justin Beaver, but they are pretty darn good! I also think Whitewater’s special teams have an advantage over MUC, lead by Jeff Schebler, NCAA Division III’s all-time leading field goal kicker. Hawks win the special teams play and force four MUC turnovers.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 21
Bret Page, former Mary Hardin-Baylor linebacker
I believe that both teams will try to set the tempo early by trying to set up and establish the run game. UWW will have a slight advantage at being more balanced and mixing in the pass. Mount Union will have to play well on defense as they seem a little small, and I think Whitewater will make them pay for that as they have proven to be very big and physical in their impressive win over UMHB this year. I think it will be a clean game as both teams are disciplined, so which ever team is able to capitalize on errors such as penalties and turnovers will have the upper hand. I think neither team will be able to count on one player to carry them through, but it will be a total team effort for both sides as they will have to mix it up to try to pull out the win. Whitewater in a close one …
UW-Whitewater 31, Mount Union 28
Gordon Mann, D3football.com
Regardless of how the Stagg Bowl turns out, Coach Lance Liepold has my vote for the D3football.com Coach of the Year. Both Mount Union and UW-Whitewater had to replace a significant portion of their starting lineups this year, but the Warhawks lost the offensive player of the year and their starting quarterback. They’ve battled through injuries, playoff road games and the toughest conference in Division III. The magnitude of that accomplishment underlines potential weaknesses going into Saturday. Last year the Warhawks had an intangible edge in that Justin Beaver was playing the last game in a spectacular college career. This year that edge slides over to Mount Union because of Nate Kmic and Greg Micheli. The situations aren’t the same but watching Mount Union stifle Wheaton when its top running back was hurt makes me wonder how effective the UW-Whitewater’s ground game will be if Levell Coppage isn’t at full strength. And while UW-Whitewater has impressive wins, they haven’t looked invincible. Remember they lost to two-loss UW-Stevens Point and had close games with Willamette and Wartburg (20-17 in fourth quarter). On the bright side for UWW, I was wrong on two of three previous matchups.
Mount Union 28, UW-Whitewater 24
Ryan Tipps, D3football.com
UW-Whitewater is proof that the whole is greater than the parts. The skill players aren’t household names like Mount Union’s Micheli or Kmic, but as a unit, the Warhawks have overcome tests of injury, travel and inexperience, to name a few. They emerged from the toughest branch of the “West†bracket, have been forcing turnovers (+13 on the season) and can put pressure on a quarterback. The biggest offensive weapon for UW-W could be dual rushers that have the potential to sustain a drive and wear down Mount’s defense. But for every score Whitewater can put up, Mount should be able to match. UW-W has proven throughout the postseason that it can stop the run, but facing a passing game as sophisticated and crisp as MUC’s may become the Achilles’ heel for the defending national champions.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mount Union 31
Frank Rossi, D3football.com
It’s a tough choice, now that the Warhawks have broken the ice with a win last year. There are some things that are consistent every year with these teams: 1) Mount Union’s offense is in tip-top shape; 2) Mount Union’s defense has proven sturdy all season; and 3) UW-Whitewater’s defense has improved all year. That leaves one question for me — but the Warhawks’ offense is not as strong as it was last year with Justin Beaver. Because of this, Mount Union unseats the defending
champions, pulling away at the end.
Mount Union 42, UW-Whitewater 24
I,m sticking with over under 60 / 30 I pick the over with UWW getting the “W”
Here’s my opinion on KEYS TO THE GAME:
MOUNT UNION:
1. Must NOT turn the ball over! Turnovers killed this team in the championship game last year and a repeat performance will lead to a repeat outcome.
2. Must get off the field! The Mount defense must get some stops and not allow UWW to control the ball. UWW’s size on offense has consistently wore down smaller opponents this year. If this game is close going into the 4th Quarter and UWW has a significant time of possession, UWW could have the edge.
3. Strike for big plays! Mount has been a big play team all year. In my opinion, the higher scoring the game, the greater advantage for Mount.
UW-WHITEWATER
1. Start Fast! In the quarterfinals, UWW punched Willamette in the mouth right away and led 21-0 at halftime before the explosive Bearcats could get untracked. Getting a lead will allow UWW to pound the clock and wear down the defense of Mount Union without having to worry about quick scores to get back into the game.
2. Be efficient on 1st and 2nd down! Being in third and short situations will limit the defensive pressure on Donovan and help eliminate turnovers. Success on first down will also afford more opportunities to take some shots down the field and get some big plays.
3. Pound the Rock! UWW will have to offset Mount’s big play capability by dominating the line of scrimmage on offense. This will keep the ball out of hands of Micheli, Kmic, and company and wear down the Mount defense at the same time.
PREDICTION
I am a believer that games are won and lost in the trenches. The team that dominates the line of scrimmage usually wears down the other team and also causes more turnovers. It will be a fiercely fought battle, but I believe UWW has the slight edge in line play. However, Micheli and Kmic are special players. Special players tend to show up in big games ala Beaver last year. If neither of these teams turn the ball over, this will be a dandy.
UWW 31
Mount Union 28
This may be the fastest Mount D from end to end in years. Everybody can flat out run which will really help containment on the edges against those two backs.
Battle in the trenches even
Defense to Mount (very slight)
special teams even
I believe the difference maker- Greg Micheli. UWW will keep 8 in the box to try and take away Kmic. However, that will strengthen the play action. If you keep Micheli in the pocket, he has the tendency to pick you apart, if you allow him to scramble, forget it.
In conclusion, if Mount can hold UWW to 100 or less rushing, Mount wins for sure. I only think two teams all year were able to do that so it won’t be easy. Micheli, Kmic, Shorts,Petruziello, Reynolds, just too much for any defense.
Mt. 35 UWW17. Good luck to both teams and STAY HEALTHY.
R24,
Since we went at it pretty good earlier in the week, I can’t resist responding to your post:
“This may be the fastest Mount D from end to end in years. Everybody can flat out run which will really help containment on the edges against those two backs.”
No comment on Mount D, you would know more than I. I can say that a HUGE percentage of UWW running is done between the tackles. In fact, I’ve often wondered why they don’t run outside more often.
“Battle in the trenches even” –
Not according to HSCoach and most neutral observers.
“Defense to Mount (very slight)”
I disagree. I think defense to UWW, not so slight.
“Special Teams even”-
This is a homer call and even you know it!
“I believe the difference maker- Greg Micheli. UWW will keep 8 in the box to try and take away Kmic. However, that will strengthen the play action. If you keep Micheli in the pocket, he has the tendency to pick you apart, if you allow him to scramble, forget it.”
Could well be. How does he do when he is contained, but pressured? Hit while he throws?
“In conclusion, if Mount can hold UWW to 100 or less rushing, Mount wins for sure. I only think two teams all year were able to do that so it won’t be easy.”
I agree with this.
“Micheli, Kmic, Shorts,Petruziello, Reynolds, just too much for any defense.”
They certainly have been so far. We’ll find out tomorrow.
“Mt. 35 UWW17”. Wow, Mount by 18. Either you are showing no respect to the defending National Champions or you are EXTREMELY confident in your Raiders. Thought maybe you would have learned a LITTLE BIT from last year anyway. Oh well, always interesting reading your posts.
“Good luck to both teams and STAY HEALTHY.”
Amen on the “STAY HEALTHY” sentiment!
bleedpurple,
Long time no talk. Hope the family is fine. Anyway, I have not seen one UWW game all year. So, anything I say about UWW is from looking at stats. I have seen Mount a lot and seeing is believing. How many Mount games have you seen? Defense stats (remember this is for prediction sake, I know all stats and rankings get thrown out in the Stagg), who had the No. 1 defense in the country? Mount. Yeah special teams, your rooo, your reeee, ok your RIGHT! There I said it. Finally, to answer your question about Micheli getting hit and delivering the ball, yes he can. A d tackle from Wheaton knocked Micheli out of his shoes as he threw a perfect 15 yd strike to Shorts. Merry Chrismas, bleedpurple!
The formula for success is simple:
LK(36+13) = 10x
Mt. Union 31
UWW 21
mount had six tournovers last year, cant have any and must force atleast 2 and score off them. hopefully the rain holds off and hopefully kmic makes it rain on whitewater. muc-45-uww-17…………………………
UWW 34 – MUC 27
R24,
I have not seen Mount, but we all know they have CRUSHED everyone they have played. And my perceptions regarding line play and defense has all been based on seeing UWW and what I’ve been able to gather from others’ opinions on the board.
I wasn’t really calling you out on any of your opinions other than the special teams. I laughed out loud at your response, getting yet another disgusted glance from my wife over my D3 obsession.
I know Micheli is the real deal. I know Kmic is the real deal. I know Mount is the real deal. I believe it will take UWW’s best effort of the year to win. But, like you with Mount, UWW has me believing in them. I expect a great gaime.
Merry Christmas R24!
For all of the UWW fans: Alert, the coach who ran out on the field last year, though still w/ the team, he’s been relegated to the press box. So, no help there w/ a stupid 15 yarder.
if the weather stays dry-
UWW 31 MU 24
if its wet-
UWW 14 MU 10
Should be a great game either way.
congrats to both teams.
Without Mount Union mistakes, the only thing WW pounds is salt. Single monkey stomp by this year’s team of destiny: Mount 42 WWWWWWW 21. Just like last year, only Mount Union can beat Mount Union.
The Warhawks are the only team in the country with a chance of beating MUC. Hopefully they bring that team from Wisconsin. The several feet of snow here is insane. Good thing the team left Wednesday. Anyways, bring it on! Is our reign over tomorrow? Is it back to total MUC D3 world domination? Or is the UWW counterweight truuly established. I’d prefer we even the score at 2-2 and fight for the supreme title next year. Best of 5 anyone??
Though a Bomber die hard fan my two nephews Keith & Rodney (UWW 80’s) keep me sticking to UWW “W” more than 60 points will be scored
What was more impressive; MUC 45-24 over Wheaton minus Gingg at home, or UWW 39-13 on the road at UMHB….
If I’m not mistaken, Wheaton had over 400 total yards on the Mount D, turned it over on downs in MUC territory, and also missed a FG.
I don’t think the MUC D is as strong as it may appear and I don’t think the Raiders are putting up 45 on Whitewater’s D either.
UWW 35
MUC 28
No predictions from me. Gutless, I know….
UWW earned my respect last year when they gave an outright inspired performance. They will come ready to play, of this I have no doubt.
The Mount Union offense has had a great post season and is very capable. I want to see the that ” fire in the belly” performance from the defense that Mount D’s from the past have been noted for. I know Pat doesn’t like the “who wants it more” stuff, but in big games like this, with so much talent on the field, I feel there is an element of “wanting it more”. The game is a jumpball – if either team wants it, they are going to have to TAKE IT away from the other by force. Here’s to what I think will be a knock down drag out Stagg Bowl. Wish I could be there….no matter the outcome, thank you to the MUC players and coaches for another year of great football.
Does anyone think the earlier start time affects anything? Do you think it’s good/bad for the players? It may not make a difference at all, I’m just wondering what the opinion out there is…Part of me likes it because it follows the routine of the regular season and the playoff games thus far, rather than getting out of that pattern and playing a game that goes into the evening…
Great posts. Like mucnash, I can’t get myself to predict scores. As a Warhawk fan and believer, my biggest concern is the “fire in the belly” factor of mostly Kmic and Micheli. That’s not to say UWW won’t have fire in the belly, but all of their skilled postions except tight end are underclassmen- they do have a “next year”.
I am confident, but not certain, that UWW has the defense to contain (120 yds or less) Kmic. However, weather.com says cloudy, little wind, no rain and mid 40’s for the whole game. This means we should see the best of what both offenses have to offer. Which I guess means Micheli will be slinging it-and probably more than Donovan. So besides the “last college game” factor, the other main factor will be UWW’s secondary and linebacker play (and pass rush) against the MUC passing attack. I sure hope UWW proves my concern unfounded.
I pray all the players will play injury free and let the victory go to the best team.
I’m gonna go with a WW win (suprise!). Score? If it is dry – UWW 34- MUC 28
If it’s wet – UWW 27 – MUC 17 (I say this only because I believe Donovan can outplay Micheli if it is raining and UWW with 2 very good RB’s will tire out the MUC D)
R24aider, I really do think you underestimate the UWW ST. Shebler is the real deal (all time FG leader?) if it comes down to him, UWW wins.
As far as intangibles, I think that the win last year really helps this year’s UWW team; Because it showed these younger guys that these guys can be beat. If we would have lost, I think it would be harder to get these young guys up, as it is they saw that MUC is not invincible and I really think that helps.
I know I’ll probably get ripped for this, just keep ‘er respectful.
I don’t see a low scoring game regardless of weather, They have both played in horrible weather and still managed to rack up a boatload of points.
Take it to the bank!!! I don’t care if it’s wet or dry!!
MUC 41
UWW 28
Cru Crushed, that’s a lot of points. Are you saying that MUC’s offense is that much better than the Cru’s offense? I know, I know, two bad calls led to the defeat of the Cru.
I won’t predict scores, but I will give parameters. If a team scores more than 30, than UWW wins. If a team scores 14 or less, UWW wins. If the score is somewhere in between, then it’s anybody’s guess.
Sounds like Cru Crushed doesn’t think much of UMHB afterall…to predict that the team that clubbed your squad by 26 will lose by two scores…wow. It’s all about matchups really and UMHB’s offense is way too one dimensional to move the ball effectively against the UWW D. How many points have they scored in the 4 meetings?
Anyway, the MUC O will definitely test the UWW D more than Willamette or UMHB, but it’s hard for me to predict either team will score 40 when they have played 3 times and the average score is 30-25.
And Scottie, the score was 31-26, not bad.
I didn’t consider the possibility of a defensive touchdown by MUC in my parameters above. I was only thinking of UWW’s D against MUC’s O.
I was at the game so I haven’t heard commentary, but UWW gave up only 3 points to MUC’s offense after the first quarter- hats off to a great defensive effort and adjustments.