In Week 13, the round of 16 is often where we separate the proverbial men from the boys; where we find out who’s OK with taking one playoff win back to campus and who has a real shot at getting to Salem.
Of course, these are not exactly dog matchups with obvious favorites and likely losers. Some powerful teams very capable of advancing are going to bow out on Saturday because they’re matched up against similarly powerful teams. Makes the job of predicting final scores pretty difficult.
But then again, even “experts†don’t expect to call every game correctly, and what fun would the playoffs be if we could? The surprises are as interesting to us as they are to you, and the ones we can’t call (but try to anyway) are what makes us appreciate the sort-it-out-on-the-field system we have.
Though it isn’t hard to keep track, as Ryan Tipps went 12-4 last week with correct picks on three of the four No. 7 seeds that advanced, while Pat Coleman went 11-5 and Keith McMillan 10-6, these picks are really for your gratification, not ours. We’re setting the expectation, but teams do the unexpected every week, and frankly, we expect that too.
If you want to taunt us next week for a score we fail to accurately predict, knock yourself out. Hindsight, of course, is 20-20. If you really want to impress, use the comments section below to guess the scores of this week’s games yourselves.
Our expectations, compiled without consulting each other, from the westernmost bracket east:
No. 5 UW-WHITEWATER at No. 1 WILLAMETTE
Keith: Whitewater, 28-21
Ryan: Whitewater, 27-24
Pat: Willamette, 38-34
No. 7 WARTBURG at No. 3 MONMOUTH
Keith: Wartburg, 23-21
Ryan: Wartburg, 21-14
Pat: Wartburg, 28-25
No. 5 WASHINGTON & JEFFERSON at No. 1 MILLSAPS
Keith: Millsaps, 41-31
Ryan: Millsaps, 38-21
Pat: Millsaps, 45-24
No. 7 WESLEY at No. 2 MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR
Keith: Wesley, 21-20
Ryan: Wesley, 34-24
Pat: UMHB, 35-31
No. 5 FRANKLIN at No. 1 NORTH CENTRAL
Keith: North Central, 35-34
Ryan: North Central, 45-38
Pat: North Central, 51-45
No. 7 WHEATON at No. 6 WABASH
Keith: Wheaton, 17-13
Ryan: Wheaton, 31-27
Pat: Wheaton, 28-24
No. 4 HOBART at No. 1 MOUNT UNION
Keith: Mount Union, 54-23
Ryan: Mount Union, 52-10
Pat: Mount Union, 42-10
No. 7 CURRY at No. 3 CORTLAND STATE
Keith: Cortland State, 24-14
Ryan: Cortland State, 31-17
Pat: Curry, 31-27
As with last week, if anyone wants to put together a composite expectation or chart the unanimous vs. split picks, feel free.
My prediction all number 7 and number 1 seeds will advance…..
I can’t see Hobart scoring morning than 7. End of game score against back ups. uww 35 -10. I really think Mount and UWW are on a collision course for Salem.
pat’s not giving cortland any love we’ll see come tomorrow…go c-state
Cortland will put Curry away fast and easy…..wait didn’t I say that about I C
I can’t love everyone.
Wow, I’m the odd man out three times. Wonder if I had too much turkey yesterday?
While I hate to say it, I think Pat’s right about the UWW-Willamette game. Yes the Warhawks are good, but I just have a bad feeling about this game. Whitewater hasn’t had to travel for a playoff game (besides the Stagg Bowl) since 2005 when they went out to Linfield and barely squeaked out a win. Unless coach Leipold and the defensive coaching staff has figured out a sure-fire way to stop Willamette’s fly offense, I can see this being the end of the road for Whitewater.
I am of course hoping for a fourth straight trip to the Regional Final game, but I’m not counting on it. My prediction: Willamette 35, UWW 21.
Enjoy the D-3 day tomorrow, everyone!
W & J in a sqeaker.
Pat,
Not too much turkey at all. Here are my “upsets…..”
Wabash over Wheaton.
UMH-B over Wesley.
Frankin over North Central.
These have to happen. After all, my pick ’em selections run contrary to two of the three choices above, and my pick ’em history is pretty dismal.
GO LITTLE GIANTS!!!!!
My predictions.
No. 5 UW-WHITEWATER at No. 1 WILLAMETTE
Whitewater, 35-21
No. 7 WARTBURG at No. 3 MONMOUTH
Wartburg, 31-21
No. 5 WASHINGTON & JEFFERSON at No. 1 MILLSAPS
Millsaps, 35-17
No. 7 WESLEY at No. 2 MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR
Wesley, 35-28
No. 5 FRANKLIN at No. 1 NORTH CENTRAL
North Central, 42-21
No. 7 WHEATON at No. 6 WABASH
Wheaton, 21-14
No. 4 HOBART at No. 1 MOUNT UNION
Mount Union, 49-7
No. 7 CURRY at No. 3 CORTLAND STATE
Cortland State, 24-21
IT IS TOTALLY OBVIOUS AFTER READING DIII.COM ALL SEASON(2008)THAT UMHB HAS HAD NO LOVE AT ALL, “ALL SEASON LONG” YET WE WILL AS ALWAYS PROVE IT ON THE FIELD AGAIN!!! AS WE HAVE HAD TO FROM THIS SITE AGAIN AGAIN AGAIN YEAR AFTER YEAR.
No. 5 UW-WHITEWATER at No. 1 WILLAMETTE
UMHBFAN: Whitewater, 32-21
No. 7 WARTBURG at No. 3 MONMOUTH
UMHBFAN: Monmouth, 35-21
No. 5 WASHINGTON & JEFFERSON at No. 1 MILLSAPS
UMHBFAN: W&J, 38-27
No. 7 WESLEY at No. 2 MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR
UMHBFAN: UMHB, 42-20
No. 5 FRANKLIN at No. 1 NORTH CENTRAL
UMHB: Franklin, 51-45
No. 7 WHEATON at No. 6 WABASH
UMHBFAN: Wabash, 28-13
No. 4 HOBART at No. 1 MOUNT UNION
UMHBFAN: Mount Union, 48-38
No. 7 CURRY at No. 3 CORTLAND STATE
UMHBFAN: Curry, 32-27
UMHBFAN
Your prediction of the Hobart vs. Mount Union Game:
MTU 48-38
So Hobart (who is averaging 24.5 points per game) is going to score 38 points against MTU (who is giving up 5.5 points per game)?
Interesting…
If Hobart can score 38, which I do not see happening, they may have a chance to pull the upset. That being said; MTU 55-Hobart 14.
TromboneMan…ya gotta believe buddy! That win UWW “barely squeaked out” in 2005 was against the defending national champs and #1 ranked team in the country. WU, I knew Linfield. Linfield was a friend of mine. And you are no Linfield.
Today:
UWW 38
WU 21
Wartburg 24
Monmouth 16
Millsaps 34
W&J 20
Wesley 34
MHB 31
Franklin 48
North Central 38
Wabash 24
Wheaton 21 (OT)
Mt Union 52
Hobart 7
Cortland State 28
Curry 20
UMHBFAN,
Yep, you have proven it, and proven it year after year after year…
UMHB can’t beat Wisconsin-Whitewater….
Yeah, Nash, whining doesn’t seem to go over well around here.
UMHB has gotten lots of love from this site in previous years, which means you probably never read it. I think last year’s team was good enough to win a Stagg Bowl, just got caught in a year with senior-laden UW-W and MUC teams.
This year there was reason to doubt UMHB, with the injuries causing uncertainty on offense and that weird midseason loss to a nobody team …
However, the Crusaders are acquitting themselves quite nicely, against a couple of pretty good teams too, a testament to Coach Fredenburg and everyone in and around that program.
They are definitely one of The Big Three of the past few years.
I’m kicking myself for having no [g]uts on Franklin. I definitely almost made that pack, but I was one of the first to be really impressed with North Central too. I had a feeeling Franklin would be in the game and would go score-for-score with NC, but I didn’t forsee the Griz W.
Felt that W&J would matchup with Millsaps for a while too, but definitely didn’t foresee the running game exposing the Majors so much … nice win there.
Keith 5-3 (missed with North Central, Wesley and Millsaps)
Ryan 5-3 (missed with North Central, Wesley and Millsaps)
Pat 4-4 (missed with Willamette, North Central, Curry and Millsaps)
AndrewChrz 5-3 (missed with North Central, Wesley and Millsaps)
UMHBFAN 5-3 (missed with Monmouth, Wabash and Curry)
bleedpurple 5-3 (missed with Wabash, Wesley and Millsaps)
Everyone hit some, no one hit ’em all … UMHB fan was almost going to give you props for going out on a limb, but you basically took everyone the experts didn’t take and still ended up 5-3.
We all did better than the NCAA committee:
Higher seeds 3-5 (missed with North Central, Millsaps, Willamette, Monmouth, Wabash)
Well, I tried to tell ya……
Goodnite, Wheaton…….
Oh yeah, I forgot….
Nice classless fans for NC….you might be able to steal stuff from our tailgate during the second half, while we were kicking your over rated behinds…but
We will fly our flag when we want, and where we want, and today, the blue and gold flies in Naperville.
Please D3.com guys … pick Wheaton this week !! You’ve written Franklin off every week … don’t change now !! Side note – at least North central had some fans show up — Otterbein should never host a game again after their over-confident fans didn’t even show up in round 1 !!
:roll eyes:
There’s a big difference between not picking a team and writing them off. I wrote a very complimentary feature about Franklin and was very impressed with their play against Otterbein; Just so happens I was very impressed with North Central too. It was a toss-up for me, but you gotta pick someone if you actually man up and make picks.
First-round sites are rewards for the teams that earn them (in the selection committee’s eyes) and fan attendance has nothing to do with it, nor should it. Otterbein has a huge grandstand that made their home crowd look smaller than it was, and doesn’t have a very lengthy history of being good in football, so an average-sized crowd is understandable and doesn’t really indicate overconfidence. I’m sure it was very similar when Franklin first started its rise.
Pretty sure I’ll be picking Franklin this week, sorry to disappoint. 🙂
Also,
Just for the record, the rest of us who have no stake in the fight regard accusations of “classless” fans with a grain of salt. A) it usually takes two to tango and B) one man’s classlessness is another man’s ‘what’s wrong with that?’
Your post doesn’t exactly reek of class either.
Also,
I’ll never understand why people think calling another team overrated is an insult. If North Central was overrated, that means it really wasn’t that great of an accomplishment for Franklin to beat them.
Nice one!
Ahhh… now I bow to your intellectual superiority D3Keith. (as I pry my tongue from my cheek) I must obviously be so uninformed that I could not have possibly known that the committee picks and seeds the teams and those seedings determine the home team in each round. Thank you for clearing that up for me. To those that can read between the lines — the Otterbein fan base choice between OSU-Mich just down the road and a D-3 play-off game involving a first ever participant would seem like no choice at all if there was any connection to the Cardinals. My position — stated somewhat sarcastically — is that D-3 football play-offs are the best of any possible football atmosphere, and it is a shame the Otterbein fans did not turn out to see it.
And to finish off the sarcasm — I fully expect that you would pick Franklin this week, just as I expected NC would be the choice last week. After all, how many times does one really pick against a number 1 seed in a tournament ? I only hope someday I can “man up” and make picks like my new hero.
In the meantime, I will continue to appreciate the work done by you and D3football.com and will look to the insight provided across the entire D3 universe.
As to the last 2 paragraphs of your post — not my battles. Kind of wish you had separated the responses or at least indicated to whom you were referring, just to clarify for all.
grizfan,
Relax.. First it was fc8alum on the OAC Board last week and now YOU this week… remember you represent your school and the program with the “handle” that you’ve picked.
The reason people picked against Franklin is simple… history. Until this year, the HCAC and Leonard-coached offenses have ONE win in the playoffs. You’ve doubled that… er, the team has. Congrats and enjoy the run, but don’t get on here and act like an a-hole with people who’ve taken time to my picks in the games.
You are always welcome in the HCAC pick em’s…. if you stick around next year.
D3Keith!! Thank you for almost giving me props, i do know that ya’ll have done some on UMHB over the years and i Thank you for that, i am a long time fan of this site, i think that ya’ll do give some PROP’S to the our conference we have some great teams down here in Texas. For my predictions for the final *8* are as follows:
MHB 46
W&J 21
Wartburg 32 AND YES FANS UWW BOWS!!!OUT!!! This Round
UWW 24
Wheaton 32
Franklin 21
Mt Union 36
Cortland State 21
CONGRATS!!! To All The Teams That Have Made IT This Far!!!
Cortland is playing it’s best football in the post season and Mt. Union is ripe for an upset…hey they have to loose sooner or later!
35-33 Cortland in an upset for everyone except the Red Dragon faithful!!!
I have watched all of Cortland’s home games, the Cortaca Jug (granted it was not a great performance for Cortland but they game planned for a different qb and rb), and 2 playoff games. Cortland is the real deal. They have a real shot and Im not the only one who believes it. Mt. Union’s D line is small and doesnt react well to plays. Cortland O line is as experienced as you will find. The linebackers for Cortland are top notch and against a team that runs Haas and Smith are going to have a big game in the middle of that D and Richard Rolo is a great DT. Romano and Lopez are great corners with speed and Lopez is 6’1. Granted Miles is gonna play the game of his life but he has performed all season. Giuliano has had a great season and they have senior leadership in all the right places. Cortland has outscored opp. 73-14 in the playoffs. Its gonna be a closer game than people think
I am not sure outscoring two NEFC teams 73-14 tells you anything about playing Mount Union.