Triple Take: As it gets late, the slate looks great

Rivalries. Rankings. Conference titles. Playoff berths. At this point in the season, in Week 10 of 11 in the regular season, so much is on the line that very little needs to be said about what kind of week it is. So without further ado, Gordon Mann, Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan peer into their clouded crystal balls to give you an idea what might happen on Saturday:

Game of the Week
Gordon’s take: Rowan vs. No. 21 Montclair State.
This one has the feel of previous showdowns when the Profs and Red Hawks played for the NJAC title and an NCAA playoff time. Cortland State took the first prize off the table but the later is still up for grabs. With the long list of one-loss teams, neither can afford to pick up a second. Montclair has the top defense in the conference (13.1 points per game) and Rowan the second (18.2) so don’t expect a shootout.
Pat’s take: Hampden-Sydney at Huntingdon. Nearly an elimination game, this is a rematch of a contest that was a seven-point game for most of the second half in Virginia last year. HSC is not in a great position to get an at-large bid at the moment and needs to beat regionally ranked Huntingdon to get into the South Region rankings itself.
Keith’s take: No. 25 Trine at Adrian. Between the rivalries and clashes of top 25 teams I highlighted in Around the Nation, there are plenty to choose from. I took the Thunder-Bulldogs because both No. 1 Mount Union and No. 12 Otterbein will have a path to the postseason no matter what happens Saturday. But of Trine and Adrian, one is head to the playoffs, forever to be remembered as the 2008 MIAA champs. The other’s fate is to close out a pretty good season in Week 11 and turn in the pads.

Surprisingly close game
Gordon’s take: Hartwick at Springfield.
The Hawks still are in the Empire 8 title hunt while this season has been a struggle for the 2-6 Pride. And Hartwick’s defense has enabled its potent offense to put weaker teams away by comfortable margins. But this is the home finale for Springfield, including three senior offensive linemen. Look for the Pride to show some, um, pride and keep this close.
Pat’s take: Ursinus at No. 6 Muhlenberg. I’m picturing the Ursinus team that went on the road and won at Alfred making another appearance. Since the Bears’ only other wins since then are against Juniata and McDaniel, a combined 3-14, it makes it a tough sell, though.
Keith’s take: Augustana at No. 2 North Central. I have a bad feeling about this one for North Central, and perhaps not for any logical reason. The 6-2 Vikings have been hot and the Cardinals have everything to lose. With a conference title, playoff spot and perhaps a No. 1 seed in North Central’s grasp, the pressure could become overwhelming, the play tight and the game way too close for comfort.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Gordon’s take: No. 14 UW-Stevens Point.
Trine is my first pick but I’ll save them for later. UW-Stevens Point has certainly made things exciting for themselves and the conference. Back-to-back one-point wins keep the Pointers in control of their own playoff destiny, but how many times can they do it? And can they do it on the road against UW-Eau Claire?
Pat’s take: No. 2 North Central. I’m going about as far up the poll as one reasonably can here, yes. Augustana looks like it’s getting the hang of the offense, going 28-for-41 through the air in their past two games (not counting a 13-for-15 in the North Park game).
Keith’s take: No. 15 Occidental. If the Tigers lost 67-61 to a 4-5 Whittier team when the playoffs were in their grasp last season, perhaps a stumble against 2-5 Pomona-Pitzer isn’t far-fetched. Consistency is the name of the game, and Occidental, playing at home for the first time since Oct. 4, must demonstrate it.

They’ll be on your radar
Gordon’s take: Husson.
With a win against Becker, the Eagles will finish the season 7-0 against Division III opponents and stand on the brink of making Wesley fans very unhappy. Case Western takes one of three Pool B bids by winning out. Huntingdon is already ahead of Wesley in the regional rankings and seems a safe bet to stay that way unless the Hawks lose. There have been stranger playoff picks than Husson — okay, picks that are just strange — so don’t count out Husson or idle Northwestern (Minn.) as the third team selected.
Pat’s take: Adrian. This is a matchup of two teams on a roll, and with Adrian hosting, with the conference title on the line, I’m going with the home team. The score comparisons are fairly even … if you throw out the Hope and Kalamazoo results.
Keith’s take: Trinity (Conn). A win against 1-6 rival Wesleyan and the Bantams finish their fourth undefeated season since 2003. We’ll never know how this dynasty compares to others in Division III, but they at least deserve a little attention for the feat if they in fact pull it off this weekend.

Who has the hardest road to clinching a share of a conference title: Ithaca against Alfred, North Central against Augustana, or Adrian against Trine?
Gordon’s take: Trine.
The Thunder have played a lot of close games and face an opponent that has quietly rolled through MIAA play. As a point of comparison, Hope lost to Trine by 1 and Adrian by 36. Trine rushes for 194.5 yards per game on the ground and holds opponents to 53 rushing yards per game. That’s second in the conference — guess who’s first in both categories.
Pat’s take: Ithaca. It’s the first home game in 35 days for Alfred, in case the Saxons need extra incentive. The Saxons have been close to the playoffs in recent years and been left out, even, dare we say, snubbed, so they know that they need to win the conference title.
Keith’s take: North Central. As I said, Augustana for some reason sounds like trouble to me. The Cardinals have to fight not only a 6-2 team that’s figuring its spread offense out, but also the enormous weight of expectations.

Which winless team earns its first victory?
Gordon’s take: Buffalo State.
Man, hard to believe the Bengals are even in this conversation. I remember making a long drive on the New York State Thruway to Buffalo with Ray Martel to cover a game there with postseason implications. This one’s for you, Ray — I’m taking Buff State.
Pat’s take: Maranatha Baptist. They are outmanned by almost every Division III team but have put together two decent performances the past two weeks against teams a combined 7-9. A win could turn into two before the season’s over and give this struggling program something to work from in the offseason. … And Gordon, thanks for remembering the good-old days, when we had a D3football.com Game of the Week and had several thrillers in a row.
Keith’s take: Buffalo State. It’s one thing to say a winless teams needs a victory. It’s quite another for them to have a chance to get it against another winless team. Morrisville State’s transition to Division III hasn’t been smooth and will get less so when the Bengals take out their frustrations.

Come Saturday evening, how many teams will be tied at the top of the MIAC?
Gordon’s take: Three.
St. John’s over Augsburg, Gustavus over St. Olaf and Concordia-Moorhead narrowly over Carleton. That makes three teams 5-2. Whatever the opposite of a stone cold lock is, that’s one of them.
Pat’s take: Two. I see Augsburg over St. John’s, Concordia-Moorhead over Carleton, Gustavus Adolphus over St. Olaf, leaving Concordia and Gustavus at 5-2. Though giving Jerry Haugen and the SJU defense a bye week to prepare for Augsburg makes me doubt that first pick.
Keith’s take: Two. With a possible six-way tie on the table, and the possible invocation of the dreaded Rose Bowl Rule tiebreaker, it’s more like wishful thinking that the MIAC can narrow itself down to an either-or scenario for Week 11.

Which long-running rivalry has the closest game?
Gordon’s take: Amherst-Williams.
The Lord Jeffs and Ephs are 5-2 and will be as amped as possible for the 123rd installment of their rivalry. Williams looks like the favorite on paper but Amherst’s home field advantage should even things out.
Pat’s take: Kalamazoo-Albion. The 122nd meeting but the first for Jamie Zorbo as head coach. This was a 16-14 loss for Kalamazoo in Zorbo’s senior year of 1999, when Kalamazoo went 2-4 in the league and Albion went 5-1. And as an assistant at DePauw last season, he saw first-hand how to get a team up for a rivalry game.
Keith’s take: Bowdoin-Colby. This is it for the Polar Bears and White Mules, who meet for the 120th time since 1892. Bowdoin will be looking to come away with an outright title in the CBB rivalry that also includes fellow Maine school Bates.