Hmm, yes, it’s getting late in the season and slowly but surely there are a lot fewer variables in the playoff picture.
Keith and I run through some of them, plus discuss the Top 25 distress from the past weekend, ponder the various choices for the No. 2 spot in our poll and on our ballots, consider how the NCAA might pair up West Coast and Southeast/Southwest teams that make the playoffs and the like. Plus Keith gives his take on a couple of interesting play calls, including taking points off the board.
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Wow – seems like North Central came out of no where to claim the no.2 Spot – is their schedule that tough to justify the big leap over say Muehlenberg?
And is the liberty league that weak to have RPI so low?
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Off topic question – Winners of conferences are supposed to get auto bids. Right now, 3 teams in the E8 could be sharing the title as well as it looks like 4 teams in Del Valley’s conf. could be sharing their conf. title as well. Are there any limits on co-champions of a conference?
Is Muhlenberg’s schedule good enough to justify automatic promotion every time?
The Liberty League isn’t weak per se but RPI hasn’t played Hobart or Union yet and played two weak non-conference opponents.
There’s only one automatic bid per conference. If multiple teams are tied for first at the end of the season, it’s up to the conference to break the tie and determine who gets the automatic bid.
Pat – thanks for the clarification on the auto bid.
On Muhlenber – I don’t know – I guess that’s kind of what I was asking. I don’t how their level of competition stacks up vs. say what Cortland has faced or even the North Central. I think my premise was along the lines of two teams in front of them lost, they won, perhaps they’d move up.
Regardless, things are defntly getting interesting. .
Just curious, but doesn’t Huntingdon also have to play LaGrange College? Or have you already chalked that up as a win for HC?
I might get surprised, but I think that will be a challenging game for both teams.
Well, I think when we talk about Huntingdon winning out, we do mean all of their games, and that includes LaGrange.
10 – 4 on the CLUSTER you nailed it enjoyed the podcast thanks go I C
Keith & Pat: Great Podcast. It’s difficult to believe the NCAA is even remotely as considerate and knowledgeable as you guys. Watch for an under-rated Union team to knock off their rivals RPI on Saturday, tightening up the Liberty League. **** If Hobart can win out (tough task vs. WPI, at RPI & Rochester), LL title is theirs.
Thanks to Keith for at least mentioning the possibility that Trinity (TX) might defeat Millsaps. Seems unlikely, but funny things can happen in SA.
I concur, a great podcast – hopefully someone at the AA listens from time to time. HA!
Mary Hardin Baylor has a lot of injuries. They lost all-american Quincy Daniels on the first play in the 2nd game. Since then, they have lost their #2,3 and 4 running backs. I have a feeling Southern Oregon will be destroyed in TX next year, so enjoy while you can.
The Cru will still go 2 deep in the playoffs despite the injuries. I don’t see anyone coming close to defeating the Mount.
Guys, UMHB would kill SO and Williamette if it were not for the numerous injuries. Remember, UMHB did beat Hardin Simmons. Give us some credit.
Wow,
10 comments today. Guess the speculation is what the listeners want!
Cru,
funny you should mention giving UMHB some credit. I think I ranked you guys too high this week.
I don’t know that this year’s Cru team would “kill” Willamette without the injuries, but it’s sort of pointless to discuss it since the UMHB-with-injuries is the team voters must evaluate.
Thanks for the clearly unbiased, well-reasoned help though! 🙂
Big D,
if you’ve been following along, we’ve mentioned several times the potential implications of the LaGrange/Huntingdon game. LaGrange itself is in good shape playoff-wise because its loss is a non-division loss that the playoff selection committee is not forced to acknowledge among its primary criteria. That appears it will be a play-in game.
SJF Fan,
I think the answer regarding North Central playing a tough schedule is a resounding yes. It probably helped that their win this week was against a team ranked in the top 10. I wouldn’t expect the D3football.com poll to follow the conventional wisdom of simply bumping up everyone one spot each week. Voters are encouraged to re-evaluate teams’ entire resumes each week based on the new information that’s in hand.
Not just that, but are their wins lackluster? They (and Wabash and Millsaps, etc.) don’t have to be blowing teams out necessarily, but I think it’s a voter’s responsibility to compare who’s doing what against whom each week.
The end result doesn’t always make sense (Franklin ahead of Trine!?!?!)
Aww, thanks … even though someone else got slammed in the process. 🙂
Trine winning by three points at home isn’t enough to satisfy me they’d win on a neutral field, let alone the fact that they started all of their scoring drives on the Franklin side of the field.
Not every win tells us the same thing.
Thank you D3 Keith, I am glad that I am not the only one here that finds it strange that a 6-1 (Franklin) is ranked higher than the 7-0 (Trine) team that beat them. I realize they only won by 3 on their home field, but any gambling man knows that a home field advantage only makes it a 3 point swing so that makes it an even match except that Trine was the big underdog and came away with the win.
You talk about starting their drives inside Franklin territory, but that is caused by a strong, opportunistic defense. The fact that Franklin could not stop them in their own territory is what should cause more concern for a team.
So with all of this in mind, I am just confused on your logic.
D3Keith,
You are welcome, someone has to keep you straight, lol. Serious though, you guys do a tremendous job at D3 and you have to put up with guys like me. I think you rated UMHB too high as well. I will get to see them play in a couple of weeks against HPU. I am worried about the ETBU game. If the Cru plays like they did against Southern Oregon it’s lights out, they will get beat. I could not believe the Cru rushed for 92 yds total last Saturday.
Coach Fredenburg will find a way to overcome some of the mistakes but you cannot replace a RB like Quincy Daniels. The good thing is we have Quincy another 2 years as he will get a medical redshirt.
I’m only responsible for 1/25th of it, thanks 🙂
This is vintage Pat. He is definitely more into the home vs. away vs. neutral field than I, but he has a point (and I knew he would) about the scoring drives pointing to it being something of a fluky victory.
There are points on both sides. D3RS, you make a good one when you flip the short fields statistic. I make reference in ATN to the comparison between the two teams’ schedules.
I personally, though, try not to rank teams below teams they’ve beaten h2h, as I don’t know what else you could ask a team to do to prove it belongs ahead of another.
Late in the season, however, there tend to be some strings where h2h alone with twist you back to where you started. (one of those is mentioned in this week’s ATN as well) Expect it to post sometime Weds. night or Thursday I guess … gotta give ATR time to breathe 🙂
I guess if you’re undefeated – you should at least be in the top 25 (generally speaking) – I’m glad that I don’t see Harwick in the T25 yet. . . their out of conference schedule should make them eligble for nothing more than a AQ for the club playoffs.
SJF,
Wasn’t Fisher supposed to give MUC a game at the beginning of the season? Even beat them on their home field? Not that I’m that impressed with Hartwick , but Fisher ain’t lookin’ too great to me either…
SJF: Has your medoicre season turned into sour grapes? Maybe all the early season hype over putting MUC on the schedule and the great teams in recent seasons made for unrealistic expectations. The two other losses were to good teams, but they were losses none the less. And, Hartwick only has one loss. Give them credit for beating you, at your place. Rochester is not exactly a powerhouse and nearly beat SJF too. Maybe SJF was a tad over rated early on?
I hope Keith is right and MUC goes through the East again…good teams that play hard nosed football…would love to see it…
I agree that Stevens Point made the right call in going for 2…you don’t give a team like UWW a shot to beat you in OT…most likely, in my opinion, UWW finds a way to win that ball game, but Stevens Point went for the KO and got it…that’s gutsy football..I like it…
MUC – I did think SJF was going to be closing the gap a bit more by the third time around. While it is of little consolation, I”ll just throw out there what I can – that we are the only team to keep a game within 30 pts of MUC so far this season.
There’s always next year . . (and maybe the year after that, and the year after that) – we’ll keep trying as long as MUC is willing to keep us on the schedule.
Statesmen – to answer your question directly – yes.
Had much higher hopes for the year. Many who follow the program full well knew the risk that we were taking in terms of mudding up our record by putting an MUC, and top 25 school Salisbury on our schedule. . .
. . I guess we could have played it safe and put a Liberty League school on there . . oh wait, that’s right, you guys won’t do that.
SJF, I do give you credit for your schedule. Especially MUC, but I bet those in charge (ie Coach and AD) may not share your enthusiasm of the yearly test with them. Springfield is another story. And, no argument here on E-8 having better top teams than LL. I was not aware of LL not wishing to play E-8, I thought they merely switched/rearranged leagues in 2004. I personally would welcome the challenge of renewing the Hobart-SJF series, as it had become somewhat of a rivalry. Also, I live about 2 miles from SJF. I have watched your program grow into the powerhouse it has become and I have to admit, I’m a SJF fan too. I also think your playoff chances are not dead. Whatever happens, this year, I’ll be at next year’s MUC game and will be sitting on the SJF side!(Can you get me tickets?)