A Fairly Confounding Analysis

The AFCA released its preseason Top 25 today.

Wait, strike that. The AFCA released its first poll today. It just looks like a preseason poll, even though three weeks have gone by. Here’s a look:

Rank School (1st votes) Rec. Pts.
1. Mount Union (39) 2-0 999
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor (1) 2-0 899
3. St. John’s 3-0 889
4. UW-La Crosse 2-0 786
5. St. John Fisher 3-0 770
6. Wheaton 2-0 758
7. Wesley 3-0 739
8. Capital 2-0 708
9. UW-Whitewater 1-1 671
10. Central 3-0 610
11. Baldwin-Wallace 2-0 547
12. Ohio Northern 2-0 510
13. Washington & Jefferson 2-0 483
14. Linfield 1-1 356
15. Trinity (Texas) 2-0 346
16. Bridgewater (Va.) 3-0 343
17. Wartburg 2-0 338
18. Salisbury 3-0 276
19. North Central 2-0 259
20. Wabash 2-0 217
21. St. Olaf 3-0 187
22. Rowan 1-1 143
23. Occidental 2-0 139
24. Montclair St. 2-0 129
25. Mount St. Joseph 3-0 127

Others Receiving Votes: Springfield 117; UW-Oshkosh 85; RPI 68; Trinity (Conn.) 50; Ithaca 47; Hardin-Simmons 41; UW-Eau Claire 24; Bethel 22; Whitworth 21; Centre 21; Carthage 20; St. Norbert 19; Christopher Newport 18; Catholic 17; Bates 15; Redlands 15; Augustana 13; Ursinus 13; Williams 12; Hobart 12; Carnegie Mellon 12; Alfred 12; Coe 11; John Carroll 11; Franklin 11; Pacific Lutheran 9; Dickinson 9; Muhlenberg 8; Hampden-Sydney 7; Concordia (Wis.) 6; Widener 6; Cortland State 5; Case Western Reserve 5; Curry 3; Waynesburg 1; UW-Stevens Point 1; Guilford 1; Adrian 1; Ferrum 1; DePauw 1.

There are 65 teams getting votes, which is to the point of ridiculousness. Let’s take a look at some of them.

Centre: 21 votes. The Colonels are 1-2, with a 14-9 win at Bluffton followed by losses to 3-0 Maryville (22-15 at home) and 2-0 DePauw (38-7 on the road). Maryville is unbeaten, and if someone intended to vote for Centre as highly as it appears, that person should’ve voted for Maryville somewhere. Or, of course, DePauw, which crushed Centre. DePauw got one vote. I almost wonder if this person intended to vote for Central, but didn’t know the difference. And of course, the AFCA didn’t catch the error, if that’s the case.

Catholic: 17 votes. At least CUA is 3-0. Never mind that the Cardinals’ opponents are a combined 0-8. Strength of schedule has never been the AFCA poll’s strong point. And this is my alma mater, and I’m still complaining. That’s how bad this is. Guilford, which got one vote, is worthy of far more votes than Catholic at this point in the season.

Bates: 15 votes. And Bates has 16 wins, total, in eight seasons. ‘Nuff said. If this is a mistake vote, perhaps it should’ve been Baldwin-Wallace, which is the previous team alphabetically.

Hampden-Sydney: 7 votes. Someone might’ve sent in their 2004 ballot. This year’s Hampden-Sydney is 2-1, which isn’t bad. Of course, the loss is at home to Johns Hopkins (1-2). Randolph-Macon, which is also 2-1 but beat Johns Hopkins, on the road no less, is more deserving of these votes than H-SC is. Not that I’d advocate voting for either. Four ODAC teams get votes, but none of them is the defending champion, W&L, which at least is still unbeaten. (Unless someone meant to vote for W&L, but hit W&J instead.)

Ferrum: 1 vote. It takes a lot for me to be upset about one vote, but Ferrum is 1-2, 0-2 against Division III schools with losses by a margin of 91-23. Why would the person voting for Ferrum (1-2) not vote for, say, Emory and Henry? E&H only beat Ferrum 50-7.

This doesn’t even address the perennially overrated teams within the Top 25 itself.

We stopped relying on the AFCA poll at the end of the 2002 season and started our own. And last year, we stopped even publishing this poll. But this takes the cake, which is why I had to say something.